There's A One In 10 Chance You're Dreaming Right Now

It's hard enough to wrap your head around maths even when it's not systematically unravelling your understanding of reality. For instance, there's a pretty decent chance you're dreaming right now. No, seriously. Maths says so.

This early morning mind frak springs from the highly advanced brain of Jan Westerhoff, a philosophy professor and metaphysics researcher at the University of Durham. In the ambitiously titled book Reality: A Very Short Introduction, Westerhoff breaks down why your present reality might not be so real:

We optimistically assume that you get eight hours of sleep a night, which leaves sixteen hours during which you are awake. Sleep researchers have found out that there is a strong correlation between dreaming and being in so-called REM (rapid eye movement) sleep. REM sleep is characterised by rapid movement of the eyeballs; the brain is highly active, its electric activity resembles that of a waking brain, but the sleeper is more difficult to wake than during slow-wave or non-REM sleep. We know that between 2-% and 25% of our sleep is REM sleep. Taking the lower value and assuming that you always and only dream during REM sleep, this gives us 1.6 hours of dreaming ever night. As there are therefore 1.6 hours of dream consciousness for every 16 hours of waking consciousness, this means that your chance of dreaming at any given moment is 1 in 10.

For some context, you've got better odds of being asleep right now than the Braves do of winning the World Series.

I know your gut reaction is that this is silly and wrong. Me? I'd much rather assume I'm just dreaming about working on Sundays, and that any minute I'll wake up to find myself swaddled in my Learjet, en route to my own private island for a month of riding grizzly bears and snorting rainbows. Pinch harder, dammit!. [Brain Pickings via Twitter]


    Statistical averages and aberrations don't change the facts. You can prove that God exists using maths too, is that what your going to believe?

    I dispute the stats. If you have watched "The Castle", a lot more than 1 in 10 people are dreaming.

    Science by statistics - eek!

    Or, it's almost certain that a computer is simulating a version of you that has a 1 in 10 chance of dreaming that you're awake.

    And that you are that dreaming simulation.

      Ahhh, I love that site. A fantastic mindf*ck if I ever saw.

    People have trouble wrapping their mind around that? There's nothing here. It's applying statistics in an illogical and nonsensical way. We could calculate the average time you spend in the toilet doing your business, or having sex or being born and say there's a one in whatever chance that you're doing those things right now. Wow, mind-f***, if you're simple.

    If you sleep 8 hours per day (1/3 of day) and only dream during REM sleep (1/5 of sleep @ lower value). Aren't we looking at 1/3 x 1/5 of your day (=6.6%) that you might be dreaming? I don't get the reasons for using dreamtime as a percentage of awake time.... Please correct me and my simple brain

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