Oh, analysts! You can somehow make the wackiest ideas ever sound somewhat reasonable. Never change! Like the latest projections from iSuppli, which claims that Windows Phone 7 market share will overtake iPhone in 2015.
This impressive assertion is based on Nokia’s partnership with Redmond and the positive reception to the Lumia 900 unveiled at CES this year. According to IHS iSuppli, it will be Nokia’s partnership that will drive Windows Phone sales up from less than 2 per cent last year to 16.7 per cent in 2015.
The increase in sales won’t hurt Apple though. iSuppli believes that the iPhone will slowly decrease its marketshare from 18 per cent to 16.6 per cent over the next three years.
Android will understandably stretch its lead, jumping from 47.4 per cent last year to 58.1 per cent in 2015.
But it will be the other operating systems — BlackBerry, Symbian, Bada and other smaller players that will shed customers like a bucket full of holes sheds water, dropping from 32.7 per cent last year to just 8.6 per cent in 2015.
Of course, someone even a little bit sceptical could wonder how a company like iSuppli could even begin to predict where a company like Apple’s market share will go given the amount of secrecy around its product lineups. Traditionally Apple has opted for a simple, single product refresh every year, but should Cupertino decide to release a two-phone strategy (like the often rumoured iPhone Mini, for example, or maybe a larger-screened model), then how can anyone claim to guess how much marketshare they can expect to have in three years time?
It’s also ridiculous to pin Microsoft’s success on a single handset. Admittedly, Nokia is certain to release multiple Windows Phone handsets over the next few years, but iSuppli’s justification for claiming such a bold resurgence for the Microsoft OS is flawed:
“One of the hottest new products unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show was the Lumia 900, a Windows Phone-based smartphone sporting a flashy set of features that makes it competitive with the best alternatives offered by the Android camp,” said Wayne Lam, senior analyst for wireless communications at IHS. “This hot product represents Nokia’s first step to reclaim its market share. Combined with Nokia’s efforts to drive the development of the Windows Phone ecosystem, the Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim its No. 2 ranking in smartphone operating system market share in 2015.”
The Lumia 900 received some positive press at CES, but it still hasn’t been released, even in the US where it’s expected to sell well. Nor has it been extensively reviewed, which could expose some major flaw that could impact sales. Even if it doesn’t have a major flaw, Nokia handsets have traditionally struggled in the US market, where iSuppli is expecting the handset to succeed the most.
So will Windows Phone overtake the iPhone in three years from now? Maybe. Short of inventing a real flux capacitor, we’ll only find out three years from now…
wsDK_II
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 1:55 PMi have been saying this since i first saw what the windows phone could be back in 2010!.
Android, WP7, iPhone. In that order.
James
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 2:01 PMYeah right…..that is until iPhone 5 is released, then Apple’s bar on the bar chart goes through the roof again. LOL
Dream on wsDK_II
Matt
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 2:45 PMHe’s not dreaming.
I’m dropping my iPhone 4s for a lumia 900 when I can, the lumia series looks much better than the iPhone in my opinion and I can very easily see the lumia series + WP8 take the market.
Sicarius123
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 7:00 PMI’ll be doing exactly the same.
MotorMouth
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:28 PMYeah, like Apple will release one new handset and everyone else will sit around and watch. As usual, iPhone will be playing catchup, barely keeping pace with the competition.
Hesh
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:30 PMyeah thats what they said about 4 and 4s. still half way catchup in to android.
Carl Manson
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 4:30 PMTrue, the iPhone is lagging behind tech-wize but that isn’t what drives sales. These new phones have to essentially create a counter-revolution to compete. Strong marketing and easy, proven seamless integration into their digital life will be the key. Apple works becuase their marketing is NOT focussed on the specs but rather on how their “revolutionary” products can improve the life of the user. Regardless of whether their products are as “revolutionary” as they claim is irrelevent to most people who buy their products.
MDolley
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 2:02 PMI think for Windows Phone to gain that much market share they will need all of the manufacturers to be releasing top products. Currently only Nokia flagship phones are running WP7. HTC & Samsung are saving their best models for Android.
TSH
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 2:19 PMA lot of that is due to MS designing the OS with extremely specific hardware limitations. Mango doesn’t support dual core, requires a specific chipset and GPU and only supports a single screen resolution.
Further updates will change this, but it looks like MS is trying to avoid fragmentation in WP7.
MotorMouth
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:32 PMI think other manufacturers will feel obliged to up the WP7 ante if/when Nokia starts making headway against them. The best way to combat them will be to offer something similar but better, not completely different and difficult to compare. That, in turn, will drive up WP7′s market share. After all, I doubt HTC, Samsung or anyone else could care less which platform their phones are using, they just want to sell as many phones as they can. In fact, over time they may see some sense in WinPhone over Android, as they wouldn’t need to spend money on their customisations and could concentrate on the hardware itself.
Vijay
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 2:05 PMThey need to improve not just the specs but also design for their hardware…..people still get impressed with iPhone design…..let a team in Nokia concentrate just of design which makes whole world crazy…..then ur the winner
MotorMouth
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:35 PMWhat? You don’t think the Lumia 800/900 is that phone? As much as I like the design of the iPhone 4/4S, the Lumia looks way better. Go into any store and check out an N9 for yourself. The iPhone’s design is also terribly flawed with glass edges exposed to impact.
Roland
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 2:08 PMif we don’t see a larger screen in the iPhone5 then I’ll start looking at alternatives and the WP7 looks the goods… especially with my PC and XBOX connectivity build natively into it. :)
Barry
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 2:11 PMThe more Android handsets that are made, sold and used, the more money Microsoft gets for Microsoft is still winning.
iPhone is now an old phone that needs a huge refresh. It still looks the same as it did when it was first released over 5 years ago. During that time, Android has multiple facelifts and it has improved with each new version released. Microsoft hasn’t really made a dent in the market yet here in Australia even though I consider it far better than Android and Apple phones (cue fans hahaha).
MotorMouth
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:38 PMNo, Barry, the iPhone 4 was a totally new design from the previous versions and it is only about 18 months or so old.
Paul
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 2:19 PMThis is nothing new. I’m pretty sure I recall an article early to mid last year about how Gartner was projecting a similar timeframe before WP7 has majority market share.
TSH
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 2:24 PM2015 is an eon away in tech – they may as well have used a magic 8-ball to make this prediction.
Not that WP7 can’t do it. With upcoming updates to support a greater variety of hardware; the MS/Nokia partnership pouring big cash resources into the project; and MS’ presence in businesses and homes there is a real chance. But I really don’t think iPhone’s popularity will fall that far.
brent3000
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:08 PMThey just need to push phones out quicker… Taking far to long from launch of a phone to shelf here in AUS -_-
MotorMouth
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:39 PMI hardly think Australia is their make or break market.
MotorMouth
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:47 PMI have to wonder if the author would have been so skeptical if the forecast was for Apple to re-take its sales lead? Somehow I doubt it. MS have runs on the board. Everyone said X-Box was too late to market, that the 1st gen device wasn’t good enough and they couldn’t possible succeed. Despite all that, it is now the no. 1 console platform and will continue to streak ahead because MS are not a company to sit on their laurels.
MS will succeed because they want to succeed. When your company is that big, nothing else is required. They can pour billions into it if they want to but I think their current strategies with Nokia and Win8 is all that will be needed. Even their most inept marketing couldn’t stop them. As it is, I think MS have shown a completely new face in the last year or so. The almost collaborative way in which customers are being kept int the loop on Win8 developments is a breath of fresh air and shows the company is willing to be inclusive and open, the exact opposite of Apple. It could be a great PR strategy for them in the long term.
Barry
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 4:28 PMHere Here Motormouth and I think it’s very true. You could see the same thing with Win7. Nokia has already said that they are looking into a Win8 tablet, so could be a start of a great Nokia/Microsoft Team but I doubt it
Single Malt
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 5:32 PMWP7 had a 1.4% market share in the US in Q4 2011 – not exactly a stellar result considering the amount of resources and money Microsoft has been pouring into it. (source: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/more-us-consumers-choosing-smartphones-as-apple-closes-the-gap-on-android/)
bernd
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 4:04 PMAU will have anyway no impact on the predictions made. as WP7 are totally under represented : no carrier is here offering anything better than the crap like omnia7, Lg and the old htc windows phones. there is nothing to see from the newer items like Radar, Titan, Lumia, not even Omnia 7 ! Optus, Virgin and Vodafone have not even one model in their list. o, what can boost WP7/8 can be the adoption of W7 by chinese manufacturer.
Max
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 4:44 PM… Uh, this really doesn’t seem that wacky at all. Three years is a long time.
Three years ago, Android had less than 5% of the market, now it has over 50%. Three years ago, Symbian held over 50% of the market, now it has less than 15%. Three years ago, Blackberry had 20% of the market, now it has half of that. In fact, only iPhone has remained fairly steady, hovering between 13% and 18% (the latter during new product releases).
With Symbian and Blackberry still in a nosedive, and with iPhone’s market share seemingly reaching a plateau, the remaining market share is going to be split amongst Android and WP7. When you consider than WP7 has only really become a solid choice since the release of Mango late last year, it’s not unimaginable that WP7 will start to take off and end up with a decent sized portion of the pie in three years time.
mark
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 5:17 PMDon’t these analysts realise that WP7 will be dead by 15′? WP8 will likely be out by the end of all.
Any way getting back to the article, I don’t really think WP will take IOS unless MS market the crap out of WP. Too many stupid people buying tech based use fancy words ads use
Jeff
Monday, January 23, 2012 at 5:44 PMI am going to get a Windows 8 phone and ditch the iPhone 4 I have when Windows 8 comes out. I hope they have some nice phones to launch with the OS. I still do not think Windows phones will be anywhere near as popular as Apple phones.
Gary Roberts
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 4:52 AMI have been following Microsofts move into the smart phone market and I think thier plan of evolving the Win Phone to closlely funtion as thier PC/Tablet OS is the key to thier future. All I can say is stay tuned.
Petithob
Tuesday, February 7, 2012 at 2:40 AMAmazing Winphone7.5 – I have an HTC : an extremely powerful pleasant phone, largely ignored / underestimaed by many journalists
Blue777
Monday, February 13, 2012 at 7:53 AMApple’s days of total dominance is coming to an end. All companies plateau at some point, and i believe we’re yet to see Apple come to that point sometime. Based on the reaction to the Lumia 900, one can safely be rest assured that the battle is truly on. The two horse race is over. The world wouldn’t be better for a boring slug out by two visually boring OS’s. Yes I’m yet to be impressed by an Android or iOS interface (paint me green lol). As a serious user, frills mean nothing to me. functionality does. How many people really want to have over a billion trillion ways to customize their smartphones ? Who wants a billion apps ? ? Somehow, I think there’s an undertow shift in how smartphones and OS’s are being viewed. How will the market react to WOA/Windows on Arm and x86 ? the complete integration of mobile and pc as a unified ecosystem doesn’t stand a chance ?
When companies like TI and Acer produce Win8 ARM Tablets,what will be the cry then ? “Oh they’re OK, but the iPad 20 is more awesome ?” “We have 2.5 million apps, we’re invincible” ……..Well it’s early, and 2012 hasn’t even completed one full quarter as yet. However I have a feeling the results some Q2-Q3 will generate hot discussions. Hope the overly sensitive grow some alligator scales by then. I have no bias to any one OS yes, but how this is going can only be summed up in one short statement “Game Over” . Cheers !
Andrew
Monday, March 12, 2012 at 1:07 PMI think WM7 was a test run like the XBOX 1 was to MS. With Windows 8 comming out soon and the GUI being simlar on Win Mobile and Win Tables more and more people will move to it. Dev for all MS devices will be simlar and there is such a large number of people in the MS Dev community more and more apps will be made and made first on MS devices then ported onto other devices like it is for lot of xbox 360 and PS3 games as there is more support during development.