Kogan Reckons Physically Distributed Game Discs Will Be Dead In A Year

Ruslan Kogan enjoys his time in the limelight. He also enjoys a spot of Gerry Harvey bashing. But I can't help but feel that his comments about digital distribution of games is way off the mark.

In response to Harvey Norman's toe dip into direct importing on the internet, Kogan sent us this statement:

"It's good to see that Gerry is starting to accept that the Internet works and is here to stay. I am slightly baffled by his latest business move though. I have no idea why he would dedicate time and energy to a category that likely won't exist in one year. Very soon, all games for your Xbox and PS3 will be downloaded directly onto the device over the Internet."

Now, Serrels over at Kotaku is probably much more an expert on this than I am, but the idea that there will be no physical media for video games in the near future seems absurd. Sure, digital distribution is going to grow in leaps and bounds, with technologies like the NBN helping it along the way, but to completely do away with discs? No way. Even with the NBN, there's no way you could (or would) download something like Metal Gear Solid 4 which takes full advantage of a Blu-ray disc's massive capacity.

Then there's the console factor. If we are going to distribute huge games on the internet, we're going to lead a lot more storage capacity than the current consoles provide. Which means new consoles. Aside from the Wii U, we've only heard rumours and speculation about what Microsoft and Sony might be planning. And it's highly unlikely that either company would be game enough to risk having digital distribution as the only way to download games. Sony especially after the disaster that was the PSPGo.

In short, I reckon he's way off. I think we'll be playing games off physical media for at least another decade, although in about seven years it will begin to taper significantly. What are your thoughts?

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