5G Is Going To Be An Incredibly Tough Sell In 2019

Photo: Sam Rutherford, Gizmodo

While the avalanche of announcements may have made it seem otherwise, today officially marks the first day of Mobile World Congress 2019, and aside from all the ambitious, weird, and sophisticated new handsets on display at the show, without a doubt the other big topic for the show is 5G.

By now almost all the major carriers have already started deploying 5G networks, and with the announcement of the Galaxy S10 5G, a new 5G modem from Qualcomm, and even more 5G-ready phones to follow at MWC, it sort of feels like we’re reaching a critical mass for 5G momentum.

5G is supposed to mark the 5th generation of mobile communication, and with it, tech companies have been making lofty promises about what cell networks could offer in the not-too-distant future. We’re talking about mobile data speeds potentially in excess of one Gbps, latencies of less than five or 10 milliseconds, and networks robust enough to handle the quickly growing number of IoT devices.

But before anyone goes HAM on a 5G tech spending spree this year, there are three big things that have me feeling bearish on 5G between now and 2020.

5G phones will be way too expensive

The second concern for 5G is all the money you’ll need to spend upgrading your tech. Unless you are the unicorn that bought a Moto Z3 last year hoping to be the first kid on the block with a 5G mod, anyone even thinking about trying out mobile 5G will need to buy a new phone. That’s means at minimum, you’re looking at spending at least $700 on a new phone, plus whatever the cost of the Moto 5G mod will be.

Alternatively, if you’re thinking about buying a more “traditional” 5G-ready phone that doesn’t need separate attachments, consider this: Back in December, OnePlus founder Carl Pei said that he expects the company’s upcoming 5G phone to command a $200-$300 premium over a normal 4G LTE phone. That’s a lot of extra dough to spend on a phone for somewhat nebulous benefits (even if OnePlus were available in Australia).

How much are you willing to pay to see a 5G icon in your phone’s notifications bar? (Photo: Sam Rutherford, Gizmodo)

Meanwhile, even though Samsung listed prices for the new $1,199 Galaxy S10E, $1,349 S10, $1,849 S10+, and the Galaxy Fold, Samsung did not provide pricing for the Galaxy S10 5G. But if we do some rough maths and use the S10+ $1,849 price tag as a starting point, and then factor in the S10 5G’s giant 7 inch screen, its two depth-of-flight cameras, and its all-important 5G modem and antennas, we’re looking at a phone that could easily cost $2,000 or more.

It’s a sort of similar situation for LG’s V50 5G because even though it was announced, neither LG nor Sprint (the V50's first 5G carrier) has announced pricing for the phone. Additionally, it seems like phone makers know these phones will be hard to move based purely on the inclusion of 5G, so both LG and Samsung added things to their 5G phones like depth-sensing cameras or a dual-screen accessory to help increase their value.

In short, anyone thinking about getting a 5G phone in 2019 will need to have more than $1,200 to burn, and that’s not even considering if 5G phone plans will likely cost more than normal, which is something carriers haven’t talked about yet.

5G’s coolest applications don’t exist yet

Finally, for most people, the speed isn’t worth it. At least not yet. That’s because one of the promises of 5G is the ability to have all sort of devices like drones, cars with cell connections, TVs, and more, all connected to each other all the time so that they can communicate on a super fast wireless network. The problem is that all those various 5G-devices and 5G apps don’t really exist yet.

Right now, if you were to have a 5G phone attached to a 5G network functioning at peak speeds, what would that actually give you? You could probably download a ton of movies and music real quick, but if you’re thinking about streaming, it’s not like there’s an abundance of 4K content to watch.

Samsung’s 5G MLB demo app was cool, but not something that can be replicated at scale yet. (Photo: Sam Rutherford, Gizmodo)

At Samsung’s booth at MWC, the company demoed an S10 5G running off of what was purportedly a live 5G network that was displaying a stream of an MLB game where you could control the video feed from a number of different cameras. It’s a neat application of the massive bandwidth 5G offers, allowing you to switch from the camera behind home plate to one pointed at first base. But the app was a one-off creation, not something any baseball fan can get just by purchasing a 5G phone.

And with the possibility of sub 10ms latency on 5G, you might be able to play multiplayer games like PUBG, or Smash Bros or Apex Legends (via mobile tethering) with the same kind of lag-free experience you get on wi-fi at home. But that’s about it. The power of the so-called 5G revolution only happens when every device can tap into those kinds of speeds, not just a single device.

As far as 2019 goes, the main groups that might be able to use mobile 5G effectively are businesses that can take advantage of all that bandwidth to send massive files securely back and forth between various off-site locations.

5G is still the future

Now all this doesn’t mean I’m down on 5G, as the tech has tons of future potential. Testing out new tech is fun, and being an early adopter gives you first-hand experience observing how new platforms ecosystems develop over time. But for 2019, it’s important to realise what mobile 5G really is: A glorified beta test. At best, it’s like pre-ordering something or funding a Kickstarter, both of which are moves fuelled more by hopes and dreams than anything based in reality.

So if you’re someone with spare cash lying around, and you are curious about 5G — or are the kind of person who likes posting “First” in YouTube videos — go ahead, dive into 5G. But for everyone else, you’ll save a bunch of money by waiting, and with 5G adoption rates for phones only expected to hit 0.4 per cent in 2019, you won’t miss out on much either.

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