They predict that Apple, on the other hand, will hit 33 percent marketshare by that point, matching Nokia sometime in 2011—just two years away—with 77 million phones.

That scenario, though, depends on some awesome conditions for Apple (think about 77 million iPhones!) on top of some truly horrific ignorance from Nokia, letting the smartphone market go almost entirely with a half-assed defence of its position as it focuses on profits from its mass volume low-cost wares in developing countries.

I don’t really think it’ll get that far, honestly, even if that’s sorta kinda what Nokia seems to be doing right now. Besides, when have we ever listened to analysts? [Generator Research via Electronista]

Charter Equity Research is now saying that Palm has pushed over 300k Pres into sales channels in June alone, setting them on a pace to sell a million units in the first quarter. Set in the context of the iPhone 3G and 3GS’s million-in-a-weekend sales pace, this doesn’t sound like a ton. Set in the more meaningful context of Palm’s sales last quarter, it’s huge. As John Paczkowski points out, the company sold just 351,000 phones total in the quarter preceding the launch of the Pre.

Palm may be waiting to release official numbers until supply issues are sorted out and they can claim a more flattering number, but this right here? Pretty impressive. If there was any lingering doubt that a single phone could salvage this ailing company (and assuming these numbers are right), it’s gone now. [Barrons via AllThingsD]

If they start making products people don’t want, and start losing users, then Apple’s strategy will run into problems.

I’m going to have to say that this is the best quote I’ve ever seen. [NYT - Thanks ponies!]

Gene Munster, an Apple analyst, says that Apple’s likely to release a 7 to 10-inch touchscreen tablet some time in the early half of 2010. Usually analysts’ predictions are sketchy, but Munster’s is slightly less so.

Munster says he spoke to “component contacts” in Asia, analysed patents, looked at comments from Tim Cook (and probably read our Apple Tablet roundup), which caused him to make the prediction that the device won’t be ready yet in 2009.

He did say that the tablet should be more complex than an iPod/iPhone, and will be some kind of hybrid between that OS and the standard OS X on desktops and laptops. But of course, he’s still an analyst, so none of this is guaranteed to be true. [Business Insider via Wired]

Analysts at DisplaySearch have told Eric Taub at the NYTimes that they are projecting a dismal year for TV sales in 2009: not only are sales of all TVs expected to decline in all of North America by 4%, LCD TV sales are expected to grow only 2%. That’s compared to a 22% gain in 2008 and 77% in 2007. Always thought to be recession proof, TVs are getting hit.

But why the slowdown on continuously plunging prices? Expecting reduced sales, panel factories are cutting back on production. And if you’ve been paying attention, you know that production efficiencies at high volume (via things like 150-inch panels of mother glass) are what drives prices down.

DisplaySearch is seeing panel factories in Taiwan and Korea are currently scaled back to 80% capacity; pair that with cancelled plans for new, more efficient manufacturing plants, and you’ve got the recipe for a halt to the downward pricing trend on HDTVs:

Mr. Semenza [of DisplaySearch] expects that prices for LCD sets 32 inches and smaller will remain fairly stable. Retail prices on TVs 42 inches and larger will not decline as fast as they have in years past.

Bummer. [NYTimes, Photo: mgminthu/Flickr]

[The device] will provide Web access, email, media playing, and essential applications at a single low price. Computer beginners will be able to start using it quickly and easily. Users will have fewer questions, problems, conflicts and security breaches, as the device will be less intimidating than both PCs and Macs. As with the iPhone, iTunes and the App Store will offer an array of content, applications and games. As with the iPhone, the software can be rebuilt from the App Store. With an optional online backup service, the entire device can be restored…. Because all applications are delivered through the iTunes App Store, Apple will maintain sustained relationships with users, making it easier to upsell and cross-sell to existing customers.

It’s an interesting, be it Utopian, vision of a future Apple product. And the idea makes sense from a platform perspective—Apple could do for computer software what iTunes has done for music and iPhone apps already.

But where Gottheil’s argument is particularly convincing is the point where he conveniently (and intelligently) abandons any discussion of form factor. Because it’s hard to imagine Apple developing any laptop under 12 inches. And while the oversized iPhone/iPod touch tablet idea sounds pretty great at first, such a product seems to outgrow netbook category once you factor in the costs (both in price and power draw) associated with a large multi-touch screen.

Digital Daily’s John Paczkowski is quick to evoke the words of Jobs himself from October’s iPod event:

There are some customers which we chose not to serve. We don’t know how to make a $US500 computer that’s not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that.

Gottheil’s reconciliation with that point? He thinks the computer will run you $US599.

Given iSupply’s $US173 manufacturing price estimate of the 8GB iPhone 3G, maybe a $US599 8ish-inch “Netbook touch” isn’t technically insane..but it’s hard to imagine given Apple’s preference for high profit margins. [Digital Daily]

Well, at least no Zune Phone as we’re hearing it. A few days ago, some analysts stirred up the rumours of a Zune specific piece of hardware this week, complete with hardware details, which Barrons quoted. CNBC declared that a Zune Phone, called Project Pink, was slated for CES. Mary Jo Foley at ZDNet, who separated the Zune Phone hardware from the Pink project weeks ago reminded us that Pink is not a piece of hardware but a platform of services that could allow Zune like services to run on platforms like Windows Mobile. (Although Mary Jo Foley told me today that she thinks that it would be powerful if Pink services ran on other devices, and I agree.) So leave the hardware and Pink apart for a moment. Mary Jo believes Pink could come at CES and with it, a platform for Zune like content on mobile devices, but in line with what Seitz has said on behalf of Microsoft and what Mary Jo Foley believes, I think the Analyst and CNBC have the details slightly skewed.

Both CNBC and the analyst Barrons quoted could have been talking to a manufacturer of a phone, describing a specific implementation of Zune like features on a given set of hardware, via Pink components. But coming from a company that builds their best devices in house, I don’t think we can call a Zune Phone a Zune Phone until we see actual devices designed in house design by the Entertainment and Devices team. (To me, this stands in contrast with Google and its Android platform, where every implementation of the OS is a Google Phone, since they have no claim to making great hardware.)

Based on all this, I reiterate that my best guess is that we have is a good chance of seeing Pink, but not a Zune Phone, at CES 2009. [Thanks to Mary Jo Foley for her expertise]

While we are not sure of exact timing, we think a $US99 Apple-branded cell phone is inevitable. As we mentioned in our initiation report, we believe one of the key things Apple needs to do to drive broader iPhone adoption is to build a more complete product line like it has done with the iPod.

The reason being the price of the hardware that customers pay is not the big driver of economics. It’s really about the subsidies, revenue share and royalties.

We said this before and we are saying it again: Basically, the Zamboni Bros. argue that Apple is going to change the strategy they have kept in place since Steve Jobs came to Apple: Upgrade products, keep the same prices, maintain profit margins. And keep grabbing money from the carriers and the applications store.

Maybe Apple will release a new $US99 iPhone, just like they did the same with the iPod. One day. But unlike the Brothers Grimm, I find hard to believe that Apple will go the same route Motorola took with the RAZR. But who knows, one day it may happen, but for now, it’s just vague speculation. [Apple Insider]

According to Wolf, his estimations puts the price of the unsubsidised iPhone 3G at $US666 (because Steve Jobs is really a codename for Satan). That gives Apple a nearly 50 percent gross margin for each iPhone, and a $US450 subsidy from AT&T. And from there, boom, jump into the theory of a $US99 iPhone 3G 8GB with a “comfortable 42.3 percent margin”.

He also says that a $US100 price cut could “double or triple” (or quadruple, if you are at it) the iPhone 3G sales, putting the example of the Motorola RAZR mobile phone, which beat Apple’s smartphone this summer, even while it was free or almost-free and belonged to a completely different category. According to him, the price cut could be “potentially devastating” to competitors. He must be right. We all know how devastating it was when Motorola did it, and how well Motorola is doing now.

His theory conflicts a bit with reality, however. Especially with the fact that Apple always keeps price points and margins no matter what: Steve Jobs specifically and repeatedly said that Apple is all about giving more while keeping the same prices just a few days ago. Or the fact that demand has remained strong since the original iPhone introduction and the iPhone keeps selling like hot cakes, already beating the competition in revenue.

Seriously I don’t know what kind of pills the Wolfs and Munsters of this world pop in with their morning cereal, but I want a year supply. In the inmortal words of our very own Matt Buchanan: “These guys are talking out their rectums”. [Electronista]