Coalition NBN Will Miss Delivery Target And Make Less Money Than FTTH: Report

When you're trying to reconcile a big, ugly fibre broadband project, the last thing you want is someone looking at your list of "Challenges" to rectify. A leaked report supposedly from Malcolm Turnbull's "Blue Book" full of ministerially important stuff says that the fibre to the node NBN will make less money than the network proposed by the Labor government and miss proposed roll-out dates. Ruh roh, Malcolm.

Fairfax obtained a leak of the so-called "Blue Book", and found that some fairly serious challenges await the incoming government with its fibre to the node NBN roll-out.

The advice contained in the Blue Book from experts says that the FTTN roll-out will struggle to complete the first stage of the 25Mbps network deployment by 2016, meaning that the delivery date of 2019 for 50Mbps services might also be pushed back.

The Blue Book says that the 2019 target "could be achievable", but could slip if 12 significant issues aren't resolved soon.

Those issues include a massive remediation of Telstra's decidedly average copper network, assessment of some 60,000 street cabinets and a huge workforce retraining program to get skilled technicians working on the fibre to the node plan. That's on top of massive regulatory hurdles, too, including council approvals, legislation change and ACCC approval.

Revenue projections contained in the Blue Book also see the earning potential of a fibre to the node network slashed by almost a third by 2021.

If this is all true, we might be waiting longer than expected for our "faster, sooner, cheaper" FTTN network from the Coalition.

Turnbull has lashed out at the report, however, calling it out of date and a massive partisan swing at the current government's plans.

Check out the full report on Fairfax to see the leaked challenges that lie ahead. [SMH]


Comments

    Turnbull called something "out of date". That's rich!

    Of course M.Turnbull lashed out at the report....why would he want his dirty laundry aired for everyone to see that his better alternative is flawed, and as usual just a political stunt that we're now stuck with because "They have a mandate".

      Yeah Liberals seem to love their so called mandates (yet they are anti gay marriage).

        To be fair Labour were for it and didn't win.

          Hardly conclusive about anything, there was so much spin coming from the Libs they could provide artificial gravity for the ISS. Anwyay i was just having a cheap jab at the Libs, mandates ... man dates, gay marriage (what would happen after a men dating for a while).

    Ok, so where are the updated figures to support your claim?

    At one time I wanted Turnbull to be PM but I now see him for what he is and I can only dream that at the next election there is some viable alternative to our current choices.

    Retort form Malcolm, "Oh No the things gonna cost more... best we scrap it then...." :(
    I'm thinking that may have been the plan in the first place... No...? :0

    Last edited 29/11/13 12:57 pm

      best case scenario is they do nothing & lose the next election; then we can get back to rolling out FTTH.

      i just wished half the liberal cabinet and the population that voted for them scrap themselves.. we have enough idiots on this planet.

        and you're one of them.

    http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/joker.gif

    Quote from Turnbull on the linked article "Our promise is to tell the truth about the NBN, and we'll honour that." just like the Gonski promise?

    No one intelligent can say that this is a surprise.

    God I hope Australian's don't get on the whole "aww, they only had one go, give them another chance" bandwagon next election. When was the last time we had a one term govt?

      That would probably be Gough Whitlam. He was technically elected twice, but only because of a double dissolution. His Labor government was only in power for just under 3 years.

    Revenue projections contained in the Blue Book also see the earning potential of a fibre to the node network slashed by almost a third by 2021.

    What makes a better investment property... A modern 4 bedroom place that people will pay to live in, or a dump that costs a heap to maintain because it is falling apart.

    How did Malcolm Turnbull not realise that people won't be willing to pay the same price for a service worse than FTTH?

    How did Malcolm Turnbull not realise that ISPs will want to pay a lower wholesale rate for FTTN over FTTH?

      Wishful thinking from a prized turd I'd say.
      The whole reason he has the responsibility for this is that joke company "Ozie Mail" or whatever he was part off... Trying to foist off cheap crap on people for higher prices is what middleman commercial enterprise like that is all about. That's his history... That's why he's letting Telstra ruin our telecommunications economy.

        But he invented the internet in Australia!.........

        Last edited 29/11/13 4:23 pm

    Okay Turnbull , lashing out on that report is bullcrap and we know your lieing cause thats how your government works, Thanks to your Scott Morrison, you have no leg to stand on. We know you wanted this report, we know that your basically redoing labors job and re-investigating 60000 cabinets ... PULL YOUR HEAD IN.

    So the FTTN plan that everyone knows is pointless and wasteful.. has been described as pointless and wasteful in a government document. Great. Won't change anything. Turnbull knows full damn well his NBN is a joke. Doesn't matter what the blue book or the upcoming reviews come back and say. It's going to be either a FTTN NBN or none at all. Frankly, I'd prefer none at all. At least that way we won't spend billions of dollars on a turd that a future government is then going to have to rip up anyway.

    I've lost all hope in the NBN whether it's FTTH or FFTN. We are not getting shit any time soon........

      Ive been thinking of just moving to a place with FTTP already connected.....

    Lets say, Liberal does come out and say "OK FTTP is the better way to go we'll do that". Everyone, including people here will crap all over them. Where's the incentive for them to change now?

      Yes you are right we hate it when we get what we want.

      Lets say, Liberal does come out and say "OK FTTP is the better way to go we'll do that". Everyone, including people here will crap all over them.

      I am finding that there is a general vibe amongst Tony's many supporters that the press and lots of mean internet people are being jerks. To use some Aussie vernacular, this seems a little pissweak considering the belting they gave to Labor, and especially Gillard. The government and its actions are going to be held to scrutiny. That's freedom, baby. Deal with it.

      Where's the incentive for them to change now?

      What is the incentive not to make a huge mistake with the technology future of this nation? Is this a trick question?

      Well lets consider that, the way i see it they got 2 options:

      1. They keep copping the flac for saying FTTN is better, they waste $billions in the process of rolling it out, they also invoke a stupidly large amount of scrutiny from the opposition. They fail miserably and in 3+ years time when data rates are supposed to be 5 times what they are now and people realize / demand. They dont get re-elected, Australia is now left with a whopping great big problem / debt of a solution that was never designed to be long lasting anyway...

      2. They come clean and say after a strategic review Fibre is the way to go, they cop a short term burst of outrage from die-hard labor supporters, just as much scrutiny from the opposition as they would otherwise. However by setting realistic goals and making the rollout more efficient they effectively expedite their intervention. Australia is better off in a few years and remembers when push comes to shove libs did the right thing, re-election imminent...

      If they're looking for someone to blame for the outcome of the strategic review they could always blame labor for 'not enough transparency' and whatever else they like, people get fibre, labor politicians that have been ousted / retired cop the flac (who honestly cares at this point, rudd has his $100 million wife, and gillard served her purpose) and the libs get to save face win win for both the libs and Australia.

      There are of course other factors however i see this as being the main outcomes whichever way this goes... although scenario 2 is now becoming less and less likely.

      Last edited 01/12/13 3:16 pm

    Not sure how either government could presume to know the costs and predict them up front. Telstra has a long standing tradition of being less that honest about its services and the condition of its network. I don't know how Turnbull expected to save money by replacing fibre with copper because the idea of reusing existing copper has always been a laughable idea from the start. Just ask anyone trying to get ADSL2 working. There's more cases of bad line quality than good, if there are any available lines in the first place. That's based on my experience in provisioning broadband for customers. Only 1 in 5 go through problem free. The rest are never quite what was expected with focus to get around pair gain or find an alternative pair via another route that doesn't include a pit full of water or some bizarre path that leads to a 3.5km copper run to an exchange that's a singe km away by car.

    "This was a very partisan [document] ... this is not the department's brief, it's the company's document.

    What's that? The company who is actually doing the work is saying it won't be done on time? That is obvious a lie. Why would they lie in an internal doc that they're not meeting targets?

    You know a project is off to a bad start when even the projections are saying that it will be full of delays and cost overruns.
    Projects large enough that they become politicised often have lofty schedules and usage projections to make them seem like a much better idea than they actually are. How many large projects have you seen that have run on time, meaning that they are completed when the nong in a suit, high vis vest and shiny new hard hat says they will. How many times has a project's usage projections been exposed as wishful thinking after the thing actually starts working?

    And, of course, the c word is mentioned. Council

    In order for FTTN to be implemented, further council approval will be needed. To place the nodes, a lot of hoops would need to be jumped through with pretty much every single council in the country.

    And we all know what councils are like with speedy decisions.

    We would not have the Opera House if it were not for the lottery to pay for it.
    Think about a lottery to build a decent NBN.
    People do not mind paying that way.

    Deep down, Turn-tables knows that FTTH is superior to his FTTN but is not willing to admit this because it will be an obvious embarrassment. Why doesn't he do what is in the national interest instead saving his own ass!

    I heard from people in the know that the real reason Labor went FTTH is to stop telstra being a bunch of greedy jerks for the last few meters to the actual house........I've always wondered what thge liberals planed on doing to fix that small problem??

    how about putting in some grants to training. some center link recipients, that have half a brain and really want to work?

    This is one of those times where half the bloody Australian internet users hold back on going to their reluctant friends and screaming "Told you so!" in their face.

    Why changing plans to a inferior, more expensive in the long run with less improvement, NBN plan was even though of in the first place I have no idea. Hooray for idiots who thought a far less performing plan, that was "5 billion dollars cheaper (I read something like $37 billion estimated to the $42 billion plan that was a much more stable price range for Labour, as they knew they had to replace all of it) would be good for the country.

    All this FTTN plan means in 1 or 2 government terms we are gonna have to spend the same amount of money again, to tear up the crappily repaired/replaced copper, to install FTTH/FTTP anyway, as that is the only way to move into newer and faster Fibre designs. So really, in say.. 12 years time, it will cost double to be where we could of been in the next 2-4 years if they had of stuck to FTTP (yeh that would end up 5-6 years, but even so).

    *sigh* I hate idiots.

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