From the moment that I found out my wife was pregnant with our first child, a son, I’ve thought of his development in terms of tech. When pregnancy sites described our six-week-old foetus as the size of a “lentil”, I referred to him as the length of an RFID chip. When the doctor said he had reached 0.6kg, I told all my friends that my son was the size of an iPad. When he was born this week, he was about the size of an HP Envy 15, though unfortunately his cries did not use Beats Audio.
As my newborn son grows to match the size of a mid-tower desktop, a large-screen TV and eventually a server rack, I can’t help but think about all the gadgets he won’t even remember using that were so important to his dad. I’m not talking about long dead-and-buried technologies such as the VHS recorder or the 35mm camera. Rather, I’m thinking about devices and concepts most of us use today that will fall out of mainstream use so soon that he either won’t remember them, or will only have very hazy memories of having lived with them.
ADSL Wired Home Internet
I was surprised when a 23-year-old co-worker told me she didn’t remember a time before broadband internet. AU edit: The Australian NBN looks set to do that all over again. And NBN aside, wireless technology like LTE (and hopefully one day, real 4G) will be floating around to help out non-heavy users.
Dedicated Cameras And Camcorders
Smartphone cameras are already killing the consumer point-and-shoot and the family camcorder. Unlike cameras, which most of us carry only when we think we might need to take pictures, smartphones are always with us. They offer all kinds of apps and filters for adjusting pictures on the fly and they allow us to share our photos and videos online as soon as we take them. DSLRs and micro four-thirds cameras will remain with us, but within a few years, the average consumer won’t own a dedicated camera at all.
Landline Phones
As of 2010, the centres for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 26 per cent of US homes had wireless phones only. By the time my son turns five in 2017, only a handful of old people and Luddites will continue to own house phones while everyone will likely use mobile phones exclusively. By the time my son is 10, most businesses will have done away with their desk phones and saved a lot of money and hassle in the process.
Slow-Booting Computers
Waiting for one’s computer to boot is one of the great tech frustrations of the PC era, but my son will never know that pain. With the move toward always-on computing, future users will almost never turn their computers off, instead waking them from sleep in a second or less. New operating systems will be able to install updates and patches without requiring a reboot.
However, if for some reason, you do need to restart the computer, boots will take only a couple of seconds because of SSDs and fast-starting operating systems like Windows 8. “When I was your age, we had to wait up to two minutes for a computer to power on, and we liked it,” I’ll tell him.
Windowed Operating Systems
When my son is ready for his own computer, the windows will be gone from Windows. Microsoft’s PC operating system will still exist, as will Mac OS X. But, in the next few years, we’ll say good bye to the window metaphor where each application you run is displayed in a draggable box that has a title bar and widgets.
Microsoft has already signalled its intent to kill the window metaphor by making the tile-based Metro UI the default screen for Windows 8. How long before Mac OS and even Ubuntu also default to touch-friendly UIs that don’t have tiny widgets?
Hard Drives
My first computer, a TI 99, used cassette tapes to store data. My second computer used 5.25-inch floppy disks, and the third system had a combination of a 3.5-inch floppy drive and a small IDE hard drive. The next PC had a Zip drive and a tape backup unit. However, as different as these disks were, they all used the same magnetic platter technology that’s been popular since reel-to-reel tapes ruled the Earth.
Today, solid state drives finally allow us to end the ancient practice of storing our data on spinning magnetic platters. Because they have no moving parts, SSDs are infinitely faster than hard drives and more durable, too. Today, the cost of solid-state storage is significantly higher than magnetic media, but expect that delta to shrink significantly over the years while users come to expect SSD speeds from even low-end computers. By the time my son gets his first new laptop, you won’t be able to buy one without an SSD. Hard drives and their cheap storage will only remain useful for servers, where space is more important than speed.
Movie Theatres
Pundits have been predicting the death of the movie theatre since the first televisions hit the market, but this time, it’s really going to happen for a number of reasons. First, with large HD televisions going mainstream and 3D sets becoming more affordable, the average home theatre is almost as good as the average multiplex theatre. Second, studios and their cable partners have begun releasing some movies for on-demand viewing on the same day they debut in theatres, a trend which is likely to continue.
Who will spend more than $US50 for a family of four to go see the same movie surrounded by annoying patrons, dirty seats and overpriced popcorn? Art house theatres that offer specialised films and a sense of community may remain, but the average multiplex will be gone before my son notices it was ever there.
The Mouse
Within five years, the cost of adding capacitive touch capability to screens will be so small that every display, from large-screen TVs to laptops, will have it. More precise pointing devices such as the mouse and touchpad won’t disappear overnight, but they’ll likely fade away or become secondary input methods within the next several years. Already with Windows 8, the user interface will support touch even if you don’t necessarily need to use it all the time. AU Edit: not sure about that, tell us what you think in the comments below.
3D Glasses
Ever since the first 3D films hit theatres in the 1950s, viewers have been forced to wear some kind of glasses in order to experience three-dimensional effects. However, in the past year or so, we’ve started seeing a number of glasses-free solutions hit the market.
In 2011, Toshiba released the Qosmio F755 notebook, which uses its webcam to track your eye movements and serve up really compelling 3D images, though these are only optimised for a single viewer. Last year, phone vendors HTC and LG both launched handsets with glasses-free, stereoscopic 3D screens that weren’t home theatre quality, but were good enough for some three-dimensional fun. By the time my son is 10, large-screened devices like TVs will be able to offer a compelling glasses-free 3D experience to many viewers at the same time.
Remote Controls
When I was a child, the family TV didn’t even have a remote control. We had to actually get up and walk across the room to change the channel. By the time my son enters primary school, most of us will have moved on to either using our smartphones or a combination of gestures and voice commands to change channels.
Desktops
By the time my son is in primary school, PC vendors will have stopped producing most desktop computers, though all-in-ones with large screens, high-end workstations for people who do industrial-strength computations, and servers (probably in blade form) will remain. AU edit: And gaming machines, of course. As someone who loves to build desktops from parts, I hope the market for PC components remains intact so my son and I will still be able to custom build a computer together, but I fear that option may disappear too.
Phone Numbers
I still remember my parents’ phone number, which hasn’t changed in more than 30 years, but how many of us dial numbers rather than just tapping a name in our contacts menu? With the advent of VoIP chat services like Skype, Google Talk and even Facebook audio chat, you can just dial someone by username. When my son is in high school, he’ll be asking the pretty girl on the bus for her user ID, not her phone number.
Primetime Television
DVRs now let us tape shows without using tapes, but because most TV networks make their shows available for free either via web streaming or cable on-demand, we don’t even have to record shows.
Fax Machines
In the age of email, instant messaging and 4G connections, there’s only one lame excuse for the continued existence of the fax machine, a gadget that had its heyday in the 1970s, and that excuse has to do with signatures. Some companies and their lawyers will only accept a scribbled signature as valid on contracts and forms, so if you want to file that loan application or send in your insurance claim form with your signature on it, fax may still be your best option.
However, three things will finally slay the fax. First, more companies will start accepting online forms with electronic signatures as valid, so someone’s illegible signature on a hard copy isn’t needed. Second, for those who just can’t let go of the signature requirement, touch devices will allow people to scribble their John Hancocks into digital forms. Finally, the death of landlines will also mean death for fax machines.
Optical Discs
I still remember the first DVD I bought, because it was a copy of “Hard Boiled” that I ordered from a now-defunct website called Urban Fetch. It may take until my son turns 10 for the major entertainment companies to stop publishing in DVD and Blu-ray format, but make no mistake, discs aren’t long for this world.
Optical discs will last another decade or so because consumers aren’t eager to repurchase films they already own on disc and because there are still a number of old or rare titles you can’t find on cloud services like iTunes. Yet with the growth in downloadable and streaming video services, all physical media is on the fast track to extinction.
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Phone numbers... to user_IDs
No thanks AVRAM_PILTCH_1960
With 7 billion people jostling for their favourite user identity - you think you;re going to get yours ?
(Well as 'Avram Piltch' - there's a modest chance)
Good Article Mate
low-latency wired ethernet, mouse control, desktop PCs.
You are wrong about these things because you are not a gamer and don't understand their value.
Further than that, you just don't understand wireless congestion. Homes and businesses will have fibre. It will _always_ provide a vastly more fast and consistent throughput than radio waves.
I agree with some form of tactile control like mouse control being persistent - I don't think they will completely disappear, but they could easily become more niche, kind of like dedicated high-quality headsets nowadays; people only get them when they need the best, otherwise they use the included webcam mic.
On the other hand, I think the concept of desktop PCs will disappear as fast as it can - let's face it, PCs only exist because it's impossible or prohibitively expensive to cram all the hardware we want into a portable device. Soon, however, that won't be the case. If you could have your 32gb RAM and 16-core processor in a durable and lightweight laptop, you'd be mad not to.
And as for the wireless congestion, there is a big surge in development on that front as we speak.There are new technologies cropping up constantly, like MIMO and DIDO, as viable alternatives to WiFi.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DIDO_(network)#Multi-user_to_multi-user
Also, Many people are investigating ways to use the rest of the EM spectrum (outside of the radio section we use for WiFi) to transmit data. They're coming up with some pretty compelling results, too:
http://www.ted.com/talks/harald_haas_wireless_data_from_every_light_bulb.html
Soon every lightbulb in the roof of your house could be transmitting data to your computer, and since that light stays inside your room, there's no interference or congestion.
I spend around ten hours a day in Excel.
Touchscreens replacing mice? lol.
I fear the day I have to try using CAD software with a touchscreen.
My biggest irk is the concept of 0-Windowing (fuck that shit, I'll stick with my GNOME2, unity), and being a designer and coder, no mouse. Fuck that. I'll keep my damn mouse, and laptop.
It wouldn't be that bad with a stylus
(Probably better)
your liky very stupid or dont know what your talking about
I'm sorry but I cant see myself ever sitting up from my seat, leaning forward to touch the screen to open a folder, then tapping on the file to open it. To suggest that the mouse is obsolete is ridiculous.
So you think that we're spending $40 billion on a fibre to the home network, just for it to be discarded in 8 to 10 years? I don't think so.
I read it closer to everyone using wifi (which will need wired back-haul) rather than stringing ethernet cables around your house.
That may be how you read it, but it's not what the author said. He's clearly saying 4G cellular broadband will replace most/all wired internet connections to the home in the next ten years or so. He's wrong about that.
This was his first mistake, and the crap predictions just kept on coming
I can't see myself ever signing up for a NBN plan.
Next time I move I will be 4g only.
Good Luck with that. Let's see how fast you go through your quota.....oh, or how often you swear when you're halfway through Futurama and the connection drops for no apparent reason.....
Mate your obviously a mediorce user who doesnt use the internet in its fullest as any gamer or someone watching HD video can attest, fibre all the way baby
that just proves you don't understand the technologies. How long do you think it will be before 4G is as congested as 3G is now? With fibre and even ADSL all that needs to happen is for more backhaul to be installed. Wireless can only fit so much info into a given spectrum. Specs for LTE is for 15bit/s/Hz that’s to say for every Hz your modem is using you will be able to download 15 bits every second. As an example, lets say your ISP lets you use a 20mHz chunk of spectrum, and no one else is using that chunk, and there is no interference, you will be able to download at up to 300mb/s. Sounds great right? However, the Government only allows a certain amount of spectrum. After all the analogue channels are shut down the Government is going to sell the frequencies used by the TV stations. Currently the spectrum that is being sold is 703–748 and 758–803 MHz or around 90MHz… So therefore assuming one provider buys the whole range, Doubtful, any single Cell will have a maximum capacity of 1.3Gb/s. GREAT you say. Wrong I say. If you were the only person connecting to it then yes it would be great. However, There will be thousands of other people sharing that 1.3Gb/s with you. 1 thousand people connected and downloading in a cell means that each user will be getting 1.3Mb/s each. Compare that to 1.5Mb/s ADSL, or 8Mb/s ADSL or 20Mb/s ADSL2 or 30Mb/s Cable or 100Mb/s Cable and FTTP. So, it’s your choice.
The chances of us actually upgrading again in 8 to 10 years would be very slim, considering how long it took for us to even get the NBN in the first place and how long it's taking rolling out, we'll probably only have had it 4 years on your timeline.
The hardware used by Telstra in their Velocity communities is capable of up to 1Gb/s down speeds, Also Labs in the US are building hardware capable of pushing 1Pb/s down the fiber. I can't see any consumer requirement for Peta-bit internet in the near future.
My argument exactly, why spend that much money on something that will become obsolete in the near future. (Although I agree 10 years is a puch).
1Pb/s will become obsolete?
Ethernet will still be around ! Laws of physics means wireless will never be as good as wired !
Hmm, which laws? Exactly.
I forget the name of the law but essentially, the more devices you have recieving and transmitting data in an area the less effective they are, regardless of the hardware capacity. This is best noticed at arenas because there are so many devices present. A company said they had found a way around the problem (again appologies for not remembering their name) but it was dubious, as is any clim to circumvent physical laws.
Im not sure if it is a law of physics or not, but wireless will never be faster. Ethernet will continue to get faster at the same time as wireless
Shannon's Information Theory - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_theory
There's a hard, mathematical limit to the amount of information that can be sent with any given technology. Wireless speed improvements lately have generally come from increased bandwidth usage for each device, IIRC.
The point being - when you're on 3G, 4G, or whatever, you're sharing your radio spectrum with not only every other mobile user out there, but also emergency services, radio stations, TV stations, satellite transmissions, and plenty more. There's also a serious limit to the data speed due to the necessity of using frequencies that transmit through the atmosphere without too much attenuation.
On fibre, you own the entire spectrum. Just for you. And it's also visible light, which, due to *much* higher frequency than radio waves, is capable of transmitting at far higher rates (you get more bandwidth).
In practice - 4G wireless tech may be capable of up to gigabit speeds, if there happens to be enough bandwidth available. In a busy area, you wont be able to access that bandwidth, so you'll find your speed topping out in the tens of megabits, at best. In badly congested areas, speeds may drop to single digit megabit speeds or worse, as the available bandwidth is divvied up amongst all the users online.
Compare that to fibre on the NBN, which will deliver you 12/25/50/100 megabits (whichever you choose) 24/7 irrespective of how many people are online. And passive fibre networks (such as the NBN's) can easily be extended up to 10,000 megabits per user. If you ever need more than that, the fibre in place can be used with different equipment at each end to push terabits of data.
Of course, all that bandwidth into your house is no good without sufficient backhaul, but at least the chokepoint will no longer be the connection between your home and the exchange.
Mate, you are delusional. At least 13 of them will still be in use
Not disagreeing with your but which 2 do you think will be gone? Just out of curiosity. I recon Land-line phones and 3D glasses will be out and possibly the Fax machine as well though Lawyers love the damn things because they have a copy that they can hold in their hands and show in court as proof, but we'll see...
agreed
Mouses will be around for a looooooonnng time. There is so much you just can't do without some form of precision input. Most of these items are in the same boat.
theyll be around untill we can wire our brains into the computer because nothing else would work as goodas a mouse
I can't believe this backward idiot is a tech journalist.
This comment was deemed inappropriate and has been moderated.
Ill go with my own analysis:
Wired Home Internet - Definitely will be around. Businesses and tech-heads would only use wireless as a failover
Dedicated Cameras And Camcorders - Smartphone camera lens quality will have to improve significantly for this to happen. Try to take quality photos in low light on a phone. LOL
Landline Phones - Dont see this being around for too much longer
Slow-Booting Computers - Can see this happening
Movie Theatres - Where would kids have their first dates??? Besides VHS came out 30 years ago. People are still going to see the movies more than ever.
Windowed Operating Systems - Meh just jumping on the tablet bandwagon.
Hard Drives - Sure why not go SSD. Less power, less weight. As long as storage density gets there.
The Mouse - How will I play games,? Besides I dont want to be so close to my monitor to touch it. Glare much?
3D Glasses - Good get rid of it. Dont need them
Remote Controls - I like the gesture/voice command future but remotes would still be around
Desktops - Yeah aside from gaming rigs, people will be using laptops
Phone Numbers - User ID's? Pity if your name is John Smith. Or will it be John_Smith256235625622
Primetime Television - True but would his grandparents/great grandparents be streaming content?
Fax Machines - Oh get rid of them please. Work photocopiers have a scan and email functionality
Optical Discs - Hmm could be gone in 10 years. Although I have seen some modern singles on Vinyl so it will still be around
+1
agree with 99%
re fax machines BURN THEM WITH FIRE!!!!!
Some of your points are correct. However:
Cameras on a consumer level will definately die out. Either LG or Samsung recently advertised a 20MP camera built into a phone or something along those lines. The author is correctly saying that having it built in is just convenience for your average person. However digital SLR's will still exist for professionals who need the extreme quality (such as a clear shot in extreme low light environment).
Going for dates to the movies is a concept we know because we grew up with it. The main point the author makes is his child won't see the world like we do because he won't grow up with the same things. Maybe his (and our) children will just go to eachother's house and watch it on their 130" TV's in 3D, or some other leisure activity that won't lose its relevance in the future society.
Vinyl's exist still because many prefer the better quality sound they produce (analogue v digital). So CD's and DVD's will be superseded by streaming and downloading files (still digital) but even then vinyl's will still be around.
Apart from that though, I agree that some points he makes are general and in the most part wrong. But hey we all got our own predictions of the future, we're not all going to be right.
Why the hell is "slow-booting computers" in the list? Everything else is something desired at some point that we would either argue about because we don't think it would go or would miss it. But nobody went out to specifically invent a "slow computer" and I don't think anybody will be upset with them being replaced.
Windowed Operating System - Surely the ability to use multiple windows is useful to anyone above a casual user. I use multiple windows next to each other and overlaid so often it's not funny. I hope they don't kill my workflow.
Touch screen wouldn't work with my setup, ever. My computer uses my HDTV as the monitor. I use a wireless mouse and keyboard. As for the remote. I use a all in one universal remote to turn on my Xbox, 5.1 surround and TV with one button press. Unless there is a standard developed for smartphones then I don't see this becoming reality.
I'm going to start the Amish 2.0 where we stop using technology made after 2013.
Maybe your newborn son won't use any of these.
I'm sure everyone elses will though and your kid will be the one that gets picked on for having a weird dad.
^^^^^ THIS
^^^^ THAT
Agreed
Only one I can see going away in the next 5-ish years will be 3D glasses.
Wired home ethernet - faster than wireless. If I'm transferring (huge amounts of) stuff around I don't want to have to wait ages.
Cameras: People will still be going on overseas holidays and won't want to be carrying their phones around internationally.
Landlines: Mobile networks go down and get clogged easily. Mobiles go flat. Landlines are powered through the phone network. Great if your local mobile tower gets damaged in a storm etc.
Slow booting computers: Not everyone upgrades their computer all the time. I can easily see computers in 5 years (and further away) still being slow to boot. (and people still having to use these old computers)
Windowed operating system: Yeah. I don't see this going away. Multiple apps open at the same time on screen at the same time? Yeah. Even if they don't have the menu bars etc, they're still windows.
HDDs: "Hard drives and their cheap storage will only remain useful for servers, where space is more important than speed" Still seems like a pretty big area to me.
Movie Theatres: Huge screens in the home? Yeah I don't think so.
Mouse: Touch screens for controlling a desktop? Seriously? As others have said, gamers won't be doing that. Plus hands get in the way when doing it for a laptop.
3D glasses: Yep. I can see this one going if glasses less 3D gets off the ground (for TV/movies at least). Not for the 3D books (Red/blue) though. Or for old TVs (again not everyone will be upgrading their equipment constantly).
Remote Control:"most of us will have moved on to either using our smartphones" as a remote control yes?
Desktops: I don't see these going anywhere. Especially in working environments. Maybe they'll just give them all laptops and plug in external monitors? Could work, but the cost of theft & repairs could get out of hand. If they're chained down, then why go with a laptop in the first place, stick with a desktop.
Phone numbers: I still manually type most of the numbers into the phone. Also as per the landlines section, if most people will be, as you say, using mobiles for everything. They'll need to put the mobile number in. Hence, still phone numbers.
Primetime Television: I doubt this will go away. At least, not outside the US.
Fax Machines: You can fax over voip, so the death of landlines doesn't necessarily mean the death of faxing.
Optical Media: Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Anything involving downloads will need plenty of speed and download quota (yes, some of you people in the US are starting to get quotas now too).
Wow, it's amazing how personally people take things on the internet. Regardless how ludicrous you find this man's predictions, surely there's no call for the kind of person vilification that is appearing in some of these comments...
I really enjoyed this article; I don't necessarily agree with the time-frame on all of these predictions, but I suspect it may not be off by as much as many people would think. I also think that some of the objections miss the point. That wired internet will always be better than wireless doesn't really matter; for most users 'better' is not necessary, 'good enough' and 'convenient' are. And money that has been spent is not as important as money that will be spent; if it becomes more economically viable for companies to implement and maintain 4G exclusively (or near-exclusively) they will do it.
I think I disagree most on the movie theatres; there is a big difference between the picture and sound at a movie theatre and that from a TV (no matter how big the screen) and a lounge-room surround sound system. And I don't think that's going to change anytime soon. If you have the money and space for a dedicated home theatre then I definitely agree that it's *possible* to get a near-theatre experience, but I don't think that will ever be available to the majority.
I can see a bunch of these coming true in around a decade, given an accelerating tech-curve, but I think really this assessment represents a prime-case; I certainly think it will be very possible to live as if none of these technologies existed in a decade or so, but that's not the same as saying that actually won't exist...
Nah, some things will always be there - like books and magazines! Just because there is a newer technology doesnt mean it will be or has to be used. Many things are fine the way they are, and cannot really be improved. Also it all comes down to what we actually like to use and have - if you/we like something, it doesn't need to be replaced.
I get the notion of the article though. Which is that things we take for granted now, will be different from what newer generations see as normal, everyday things.
Good Luck with that. Let's see how quick you go through your quota.....oh, and how often you swear when you're halfway through an episode of Futurama and the connection drops for no apparent reason....
I think you have completely underestimated how much gaming has an influence on these things. There are things like Wired internet that need to be because even 4G has unbearable ping. Desktops allow for better cooling and more tinkering. Mouse will be around until a better version of point and shoot on a 2D or 3D level.
The silliest article here is saying that there will be no dedicated camcorder and cameras; Hollywood is not gonna have Smartphones on standby to record 24 hours of footage. They will have a dedicated device so they dont waste money on the phone or camera or mp3 player.
Nice idea and most are true but i think you are completely overlooking obvious reasons why somethings will not die they may transform but they will not die out.
This is a nice theory, but 1) Obviously it's based in US logic- Primetime TV ain't going away in Australia anytime soon for a start and 2) Please god PLEASE! DON'T make me use wireless as my everyday internet. I will want to throw my pc out the window every time I want to stream from iView....
I think this article is more effective as a "15 current technologies my newborn son won't HAVE to use (as there will be somewhat popular mainstream alternatives)".
Wouldn't slow booting computers often more be a product of viruses? sure as hell don't see them going away.
Slow booting computers will always be a problem, because no matter how fast something is, we're still gonna complain that its not fast enough. Even Google's Instant Search is starting to feel kinda slow.
when i got this computer 3-4 years ago i thought it was so fast now it feels like i bought it in the early 90s