One tablet to rule them all, anyone? The latest figures suggest that Android’s not making a great deal of headway against Apple’s uber-popular tablet solution, and may not take significant share for many years.
Gartner’s figures for tablet sales are rather sobering stuff if you’re an Android fanatic, and it’s not much better until at least 2015.
First of all, this year’s figures. It’s expected that 63.6 million tablets will sell this year, up a stunning 261 per cent from last year. Apple’s expected to hold 73.4 per cent of the market; Android only 17 per cent, with the remaining near 10 per cent being Playbooks and HP TouchPads — although that’s almost certainly a rather stagnant market figure for TouchPads.
By 2015, it’s expected that the Tablet market will amount to around 326 million devices, of which 149 million would be expected to be iPads and 116 million Android tablets. RIM’s expected to shift around 26 million Playbooks, eclipsed already by Windows 8 tablets, which Gartner estimates to be around 34 million units by that stage.
Predictions are still just that; it’s not an absolute science but a forecast of the way the market might go. Having said that, the figures for this year do still show a lot of iPad market dominance. I’ve pondered on why this is so rather extensively recently — what’s your take on the current and future Android market? [Gartner via ITNews]
wsDK_II
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 9:40 AM2013, not 2015
olearymo
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 9:48 AM…is that a correction? Personal opinion? Give us something to go on here, mate.
And 2013, 2015, whatever… I mean, analysts are always doing this stuff. They have some hits, some misses.
Remember how long it took Android to get where it is? Slow and steady can work. After all, that’s how Apple got where they are. I don’t know why everyone is obsessed with INSTANT results in tech.
Nick
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 11:00 AMSeeing as it’s wsDK_II, he’s come to spew his hatred of Apple on this article.
olearymo
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 11:44 AMI wish he’d spew it somewhat sensically.
BenDTU
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:12 AMWhat happens then? Does Honeycomb come out of beta?
norsiiii
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:49 PMWhat are you on…?
Marlon
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 9:47 AMI’m sorry… but it this report seriously suggesting that people are going to turn their nose up as Windows 8 tablets? GTFO.. They are going to change the tablet market completely.
Anyone that has a Windows computer at home (that would be what, 90% of the market) will seriously have to consider it because of compatability alone! It just seems rather glib to assume that the stagnating Android tablets will magically catch up with Apple but the Windows tablets that seem to promise so much will just fade into obscurity
EckyThump
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:23 AMYeah, gotta agree with you there, The majority of PC users, use and understand how windows works! If Windows 8 turns out to be half as good as it sounds, then my bet is a good proportion of users will opt for a system they can tinker with without learning a whole new architecture! It will certainly be my choice! #]
Blake
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:43 AMYes, this obviously explains why apple sells more iPhones (or iPods) than their osx products.
olearymo
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:48 AMI agree with you guys that a GOOD Windows tablet platform, which 8 seems to be, would be snapped up by quite a lot of Windows users. It seems naive and shortsighted to write off Win 8 tablets.
I mean, people are *still* writing off Win Phone 7, but it’s doing quite well. It’s no Android or iOS, but… it’s not tanking.
Marten
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:31 PMWhy are tablets even inportant ?
King of toys. Something your phone can do and your PC can /own.
The great toilet device everyone needs. Rite.
scott
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 8:08 PM+1
If its not got a touch screen or app store, its not good enough? Please.
I WANT MAH BUTTONS!
Grim
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 11:58 AMI’d love a Windows laptop for running old games like those from gog.com. It’d be great to play some stuff like that on the train to work =)
MotorMouth
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:17 PMYeah, I’m with you guys, too. Right now, tablets like iPad are kind of the inverse of netbooks: iPad has a great UX but doesn’t have an OS that will allow it to replace anyone’s existing computer (laptop/desktop/whatever), whereas a netbook will allow you to do that but at the expense of a snappy UX. What Win8 will finally do is take the best of both worlds, allowing people like me, who cannot imagine finding a use for either an Android or iOS tablet, to finally consider that form factor.
In fact, a Tegra 3 powered slate is likely to give a lot of even high-end laptops a run for their money and Win8 seems like it will be in the perfect position to exploit that kind of grunt. When you think about it, it is almost the same situation in which Apple first launched the iPhone – at the confluence of software and hardware that allowed the iPhone to offer a quantum leap above the existing PDA and phone tech at the time.
Harvz
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 9:52 AMi think it would be cool for giz to do a survey to find out what people are doing on their tablets. for me im really just using it to surl the net while on the couch. but i would like to know from ipad user what they use it for. if it is just the net and a few apps then y go for an ipad over a cheaper android tablet. and for the things we are using it for do we need a quad core cpu? or even dule core?
Leo
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:03 AMWhat my iPad is used for
1. Books
2. Internet
3. Checking out new apps and then never using them again
I would have purchased an Android tablet but there just was not a credible alternative when I got my iPad. Now there is just not significant enough feature difference to bother upgrading. I hate iTunes and must maintain a Windows partition solely for that and it sucks.
Other people will have different uses for their tablets and may be able to point to some feature that they use that makes it better than another tablet but in my case they are all about the same, as long as it is reliable and the battery lasts for a significant time then any tablet would do.
i2
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:15 AMWhat do you mean “must maintain a Windows partition solely for that and it sucks.” ????
olearymo
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:43 AMPerhaps running Linux as main OS?
Leo
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:26 PMCorrect
MotorMouth
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:22 PMLeo, you should get a Kindle. I haven’t charged mine for about 6 weeks, so last night I thought to check the battery status and it is still showing a full charge. I’m almost finished my second book since charging, so it is likely I will not have to charge it again this year as I already have a dozen or more books lined up, ready to go. Using the interweb definitely wrecks battery life but I use my phone or my laptop for that. I can’t imagine anyone who already has a Kindle ever seeing any value in an iPad.
olearymo
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:46 AMI purchased my iPad at a time where there were no worthwhile Android tablets. It was the cheapest and best available at the time.
I also wanted to ‘try out’ iOS to see if I’d like an iPhone in the future.
Uses:
1. Web surfing
2. Twitter (echofon)
3. Remote control iTunes through home speaker system
4. Various apps that, admittedly, are mostly also available on Android.
If I had to do it all again, knowing what I know, I think I’d choose iPad again because it’s a lot smoother and simpler than the Android tabs I’ve tried out, and for the iTunes remote control. It just works best for me. Also, the price discrepancy isn’t great enough for there to be a real argument for one over the other.
MotorMouth
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:27 PMThat seems a bit back-to-front to me. I’d be much more likely to buy an iPhone to check out iOS. You can pick up a new 3G on eBay for under $300 and phones seems to me to be what the OS is best suited for.
Jordaan Mylonas
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 11:44 AMgizmodo US ran an article a few months back claiming that some group did a study, and found that over 90% of iPad owners use it for nothing more than web browsing and videos/music.
light487
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:09 AMThis isn’t saying that iPad is better.. it’s just predicting the market share and I think it’s a fairly accurate prediction. Are iPads better than Android tablets “in my opinion”? No, of course not.. but if asked if iPads are going to be the dominant device in the market place in 2015, I would have to say yes. Even if it’s iPads 51%, Anroids 49%, it’s still a dominance in terms of market share.
z3d
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 11:05 AMI realised a funny thing. I took my home laptop to a client site last thursday. It’s still sitting in the bag. I’ve been using my phone and ipad all this week so haven’t felt the need to connect it back up. this coming from a serious tech junky.
i’ve not played with any more recent android since I got pissed off with my galaxy tab running gingerbread. but the ipad just seems to do a great job of doing everything where my galaxy tab was just a pain in the ass.
i’m a tech-whore. i don’t get too caught up with brands. i just buy the newest shiny. microsoft with windows 8 is clearly going to murder android in the tablet space (if not the mobile too). They’re doing great things and there’s a good chance it’ll be what replaces my ipad. Google keep putting more lipstick on the same Android pig without fixing any underlying issues. Google is succeeding in the mobile OS market only because tech manufacturers don’t really have any better options.
Mike
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 12:04 PMyeah, because Ice Cream Sandwich is all aesthetic changes. Research before you post my son!
/REALtechwhore
z3d
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 2:03 PMhow do i upgrade my samsung galaxy tab to it? oh? i can’t. why do you need to rely on dodgy hacked roms? why can’t updates be rolled out direct from google to everyone at once? how are they addressing the fact that apps are coming out but will only run on the very latest versions of the os? even if you have the latest OS, there are still very slow roll-outs of apps due to lack of standardisation. if you owned an android for more than 5 minutes, this would piss you off too. if it doesn’t piss you off that you google doesn’t think this is priority then you’re just a mindless fanboy. good luck getting icecream on the device you already bought.
Leo
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:41 PMMy Android phone has been through three versions of Android, legitimately. I also run custom ROMS on it anyway because I get even more control. Windows 7.0 phones won’t be able to use Windows 7.1 only apps, just the same as Android.
When you develop an app you can also choose include many versions of the OS in its compatibility, only if that version of the OS doesn’t support a feature would it be excluded.
I can see you trying to poison the well by calling others fanboys if they disagree with you but you really don’t have any solid arguments to your diatribe. I think you are the fanboy trying to push your own validate your own personal choice.
Z3d
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 8:16 PMWhat am I a fanboy of? Having bought 2 supposedly top of the range android devices only to be frustrated with when just a couple months later my device can’t be upgraded and can’t run latest apps. I didn’t call him a fanboy. I said if that doesn’t piss u off you are a mindless fanboy. Don’t ya think? It seems like perpetually, android fanboys argue that the next version will solve all the problems. (even though they’ll have to buy another device to get it) happened with eclair, froyo, gingerbread and honeycomb.
BenDTU
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:16 PMNobody knows what ICS will have in it, you can’t really argue either way.
Parker
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 11:12 AMIs it fair to compare hardware to software (saying ‘Android’ isn’t selling as much as ‘iPad’)?
olearymo
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 11:46 AMI think for ‘iPad’, read ‘tablet version of iOS’.
Mike
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 12:07 PMIMO Windows8 tablets will explode in the market, the interconnectivity with other devices, services, etc as well as an interface that’s been designed specifically with touch-based devices in mind…well nuff said.
Easy to use because it’s still familiar, simple because metro is big pretty pictures that any idiot can understand. If the hardware is responsive/functional and not a cut-down POS, other tablets are gonna have some *serious* competition.
Wok
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 12:17 PM+1
Caesar Wong
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 12:56 PMConsidering Windows 8 isn’t even supposed to be out officially until “late 2012″ the Gartner timeline is probably accurate enough as far as Metro-powered tabelts are concerned anyway.
Dave
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 1:39 PMi was thinking similar to you caesar Windows 8 looks great but it isn’t slated to release till mid 2012 i thought? it won’t magically catch up to the others right away. Still I wish they would start microsoft courier again :( i miss that idea.
Jordaan Mylonas
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 1:58 PMCourier could be implemented as a Windows 8 API that allows for complex data and actions to be transferred between open programs via drag and drop.
Then, and Win8 device, regardless of form factor, could act like the Courier.
Luke
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 2:52 PMThe thing is, is it too little too late for Windows 8 and the Metro GUI? Windows 8 is good but is it enough to sway the public away from Apple and Android?
The iPad has a strong market share and as a trend Apple releases a new model every year so sales for iPads will pick up significantly when they first come onto the market.
Apple fanboy or Android fanboy… everyone knows that it will take a a lot to knock off Apple of its perch and its always a possibility that tablets might be irrelevant in 2015, we dont know what technological innovation is around the corner.
In my opinion… This gets up the nose of my mate who is a android fanboy is that without Apple… would smartphones and tablet computers be the same and as popular as they are today?
Ru
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 3:57 PMTrue, smartphones would not be as popular without Apple, but neither would cars without Ford. Doesn’t matter who innovated first, just who innovates best. From what we have seen with Apple products and iOS 5, it isn’t Apple who are innovating best.
Dom T
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 4:03 PMI sort of understand your mate’s problem… that’s a strange, rhetorical question.
Sort of like saying “without Nokia, would the mobile/cellular phone be the same and/or as popular as they are today?” Of course there would still be mobile phones without Nokia, and indeed smart phones without Apple! BlackBerry were (arguably) the first “smart-phone” developers, and if apple didn’t create the iphone, there would quite certainly be smart phones today, albiet they might be different. It’s kind of hard to tell, because it’s a totally hypothetical discussion with no correct answer.
MotorMouth
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:54 PM46million iPads vs 450million installs of Windoze 7, who really has the advantage? I’m sure there is a vast multitude of Windoze users who, like me, are more concerned with our applications than our OS. When, and only when, I can run all the apps I use every day, I might consider a slate computer. Right now, an iPad seems like a smartphone that doesn’t make calls and won’t fit in my pocket. i.e. Useless.
As for what Apple has done to change the landscape, I’d suggest that all they did was pick their time perfectly. They got it wrong with the MacBook Air but with iPhone they were spot-on. Had they been a year later, they would have been also-rans, a year earlier and it would have been like the Air – a nice idea but the hardware would have let it down.
MotorMouth
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:18 PMHere’s my take – tablets are taking over from netbooks but, like most tech, the vast majority of owners/users will replace their current machine when it has served a useful life. For me that is around two years but for most of my friends it is more like 3 or 4, which takes us neatly to 2015. By then, Win8 will be more than two years old and a lot of people who have bought netbooks in the last couple of years won’t be looking to upgrade until it is out and doing OK. Win8 will also offer significant advantages over iOS, unless Apple are willing to release their stranglehold on apps (NEVER going to happen), in that people won’t have to find and learn “apps” to take the place of the applications they have been using for years.
Hardware is also cracking along in line with Moore’s Law in the slate space and, with things like Tegra 3 on the horizon, it is reasonable to assume that slates in 18 months time will be twice as fast as an iPad 2 is now. By 2015, they are likely to be 8-10 times faster. How sad will iOS look in the face of hardware like that? Apple will have to switch to OS X to compete, but they can’t do that without losing billions from the App Store. Their best shot is probably to take the money and run like hell because by 2015 it could all have turned to custard.
Spuddy
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:42 PMI have had a HTC Desire Z for a few months now and these are the reasons the hardware is irrelevant and I will never buy another Android
-Pictures disappear
-Lags when transitioning between home screens
-None of the apps I have are optimised, so they run very poorly despite having superior hardware to the iPhone 3GS
-Have to wait for months after updates are released and 2.3 gets corrupted every time I try to update
-OS is far too complicated for the average person and offers very few advantages
Whatever causes the iPad to have less than 50% of the tablet market it will definitely not be Android.
Harvz
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 7:19 PMflash a new rom and all your problems are over
Curtis
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:38 PMYou Idiots,
The iPad was in development before the iPhone was ever thought of. It was only when they saw that there would not be a market for the pad yet, that they switched that technology over to the iPhone.
There is also the fact that most windows users do not upgrade just cause their is a new OS on the block. My FIL still has WXP and does not want to move to 7 because he just does’t like it.
So lets say Wdoz brings out the 8slate most businesses will have to upgrade there current computers for this to work as it won’t work with XP and probably won’t work with server 2003.
So do you think millions of businesses are going to upgrade all there hardware for some slate that will work with their new computers.
The answer is NO.
They will keep using XP and server 2003 cause it is reliable. That is why they buy iPads and iPhones cause they integrate nicely with businesses, all you need is iTunes and a computer.
But with IOS 5 coming out you won’t even need the computer just connect it to your business and away you go.
Ok i have had my say now let the bashing begin
Z3d
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 8:21 PMThat was precious. You’re opinions are just as valid as everyone else’s. Don’t let anyone tell u otherwise.
MotorMouth
Saturday, September 24, 2011 at 11:03 AMCurtis, are you drunk? How can you possibly suggest that a newer version of Windoze will be less compatible with an older version of Windoze than a completely different OS made by a completely different vendor? My WP7 works perfectly well with WinXP, I see no reason why Win8 would be any different. IN fact, that is one of the key points in favour of Windoze over MacOS – Microsoft know they have to keep everyone happy, whereas Apple don’t give a toss if they break backwards-compatibility with a new OS release, because they understand that the people who buy their products will put up with whatever krap they fling at them.
smurfydog
Friday, September 23, 2011 at 8:41 PMAll the talk about the future of tablets 4 years out can only be highly speculative.
Having said that, a couple of points to consider about the possibile market share of Win8 tablets.
There will be both ARM and x86 variants. How this will differentiate the user experience and price is of course unknown, but that must surely be a factor in the adoption rate when they do come to market.
My guess would be ARM tablets would cater more to the iPad market, and x86 tablets could be for the business/power-user market.
If this is the plan, then it could go either way. That is, we’ll either see the Win8 tablet succeed due to broader market appeal, or fragment and die due to inconsistency and market confusion.
Oh, and tablets could always go the way of the netbook by 2015. You never know what’s just around the corner.
MotorMouth
Saturday, September 24, 2011 at 11:06 AMI think the line between ARM and x86 will become very blurry in coming years, as tablets begin to dominate the market. Companies like nVidia are ramping it up already and that can only continue into the future. I can’t wait to see some Tegra 3 benchmarks.
Mark
Monday, September 26, 2011 at 11:21 AMSince Rim only managed to ship 200,000 playbooks in the first 3 months and the touchpad is no longer sold, i don’t think they are going to account for 10%(approx 6.5mil) of the market this year