While Netgear Patrick Lo believes that Apple needs to open up to survive in a post-Steve Jobs world, he also had some thoughts on Microsoft’s smartphone platform. He doesn’t think it’s going to be an easy ride for the Redmond company:
Journalist: It’s interesting that you haven’t mentioned Microsoft
Lo: Microsoft is over. Game over. From my point of view.
Journalist: You don’t see them penetrating the [smartphone market]at all
Lo: It’s very difficult. They’re late to the game. Very late.
Journalist: They did it with Xbox…
Lo: Xbox, yep. But from the operating system for consumer electronic devices… I mean, the review of CES on the tablet version [of Windows]and the smartphone version wasn’t that great…
That’s a bit of an understatement. Microsoft’s tablet solution is a nightmare (unless you have a hidden keyboard in the design), and Windows Phone 7 is struggling to gain market share compared to the booming iOS and Android markets. But Lo continued to elaborate:
Lo: The biggest things are momentum, right? So if you see there’s momentum in certain technology, you just can’t stop it… In the late 80s you saw the momentum of TCP/IP taking over. The Europeans wanted to stop it – because they hate everything America does – so they invented this OSI, they said it’s more elegant, it’s easier, blah, blah blah. They worked through international committees, they tried to stop TCP/IP. But you just can’t. The momentum just kills you.
So I think today, there’s no doubt the momentum behind these two – Android and iOS – is just tremendous. I think it would be very difficult for anybody to try and stop it. It would take a tremendous amount of money.
Looking at the stats, you have to agree that the momentum is definitely behind Android and iOS at the moment. But if Microsoft has one thing, it’s very deep pockets, so I wouldn’t be ruling them out as a smartphone contender just yet…
AA
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 12:16 PMYep. Momemtum is key. But as Lo mentioned, the only way to do it is with a tremendous amount of money, which Microsoft has.
Never, ever, write of Microsoft. They perform the best when their backs are to the wall.
MDolley
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 12:37 PMMicrosoft demonstrated with Xbox that they are prepared for a division to have years of losses if they believe that the overall result will be a success.
I believe that Microsoft is going to have a strong focus on WP7 during 2011, which will see growth. I also think that most of the gains in WP7 market share are going to come from Symbian and BlackBerry users rather than iOS or Android users. There is no reason Microsoft can’t make WP7 a success as the 4th or 5th most popular OS.
As for Windows Tablets – I disagree. As an iPad owner I am actually starting to find some of the Oak Trail Windows 7 tablets appealing. I also think the Windows 7 tablets that support active digitisers are going to be popular.
Your Mate Alex
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 12:47 PMMicrosoft have essentially devised a product plan which is almost identical to Apple’s except rather than producing phones themselves, they’re providing high minimum specifications for 3rd parties. They have the ability to tie the product in with their computer operating system and with the xbox. Android is only popular now because unless you have/want an iphone, there is no other reasonable alternative. Everything else is complete crap. In a year or two, Google will face a dilema far worse than what apple has gone through when all the phones that are being sold now will not be upgraded to later versions by the phone makers/mobile providers. Software vendors will struggle with decisions of how to upgrade their software and which versions things will run. This will be a nightmare. It will make developing software for will be very expensive and risky and therefore not great for business. You can’t compare it with WP7 is in its just in its first release. The test will be when Microsoft start rolling out OS updates and how that will be received by users. The biggest problem with having something that is quite open, cheap and allows people to use it however they want is that they do.
boc
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 1:47 PMNot necessarily valid for the whole world but in Australia at least – a large number of people are on two year contracts and get a new phone when they renew their contract.
Most of my friends have never paid for a phone in their lives (only accepting free ones for renewing their contracts). Obsolescence or fragmentation from the user’s perspective becomes moot at that point wouldn’t it?
matt
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 6:35 PMI still face the same dilemma…
for me, Windows phone is just iphone with a big windows stamp on it. and xbox live integration.
sure you get a choice of hardware, which is nice. but if it was just about hardware, I’d pick the iphone…
sure, the interface is different, and that apparently makes all the difference for most people, but me… I see the exact same closed, locked up system that I hate about iphone…
GNexus
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 3:26 PMSo, Lo is basing his “expert” opinion on his passing familiarity with a couple of reviews? I would say that that hardly constitutes a foundation for critical thinking. BTW, if the OS for the XBox isn’t an OS for consumer electronics, I’m not sure what it is. He’s clearly caught out expressing an opinion based on hope rather than based on meaningful contextual or historical trends. I’ve read more substantive comments on the WP7/iOS/Android debate from people whose internet names end in “Meatbucket” and a 3 digit number.
Ken Oath
Thursday, February 3, 2011 at 12:45 PMTotally agree with you on this one. So quick poll, who actually owns or has owned Netgear products? They’re not exactly a market leader themselves, Microsoft on the other hand…
Your Mate Alex
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 3:30 PMsure but you can still buy today android 2.1 phones (and earlier) on a 2 year contract only to find out that you can’t use apps on it that require 2.2. What happens in a year’s time when 3.0 is the norm? Do developers code to use all the benefits of 3.0 and a separate lite version for older phones? When do you upgrade your app for 3.0 and when do you drop support for 2.x? Considering that different countries and even carriers within a country have different priorities on phone OS updates. How long do you maintain multiple versions and how many phone/OS combinations will you support/test? It’d be risky not to support most phone combinations because of the negative press your software would get if you sell an app that crashes. I just don’t think the whole thing has been thought out very well. This is where Microsoft will have a great chance. For people who don’t like Apple and got burnt by Android, there’s Microsoft.
Steve
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 6:32 PMThis doesn’t happen. The fragmentation scare is highly exaggerated. You cannot purchase an Android phone on contract now that runs anything earlier than Eclair. And 2.2 apps are completely usable with 2.1. This isn’t a problem and I’ve yet to meet anyone who has experienced it.
The issue with 3.0 is also largely inconsequential. That is designed largely for tablets. And until they screw up, we cannot so quickly judge.
But Microsoft has proven that they’re willing to pull overtime and throw money at a problem. They went into the console market when no-one thought there could possibly be a 3rd player and they carved out the Xbox niche. Then the subsequent generation, they compounded on that success. WP7 just seems like a beachhead more than anything.
MDolley
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 7:55 PM“You cannot purchase an Android phone on contract now that runs anything earlier than Eclair.”
Wrong.
http://vodafone.com.au:80/personal/android/mobiles/lg-optimus/index.htm
And that was just a quick look
boc
Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 6:37 PM“sure but you can still buy today android 2.1 phones (and earlier) on a 2 year contract only to find out that you can’t use apps on it that require 2.2.”
I’ve always found that to be a poor argument. The reason being that the owner still has a perfectly usable and functional phone. They got what they paid for.
From the user’s perspective I don’t think it’s a big issue.
For developers though, I agree that it isn’t so straight forward how you plan and maintain an app for Android.
If you look at the top selling Android phones you’ll find there isn’t exactly a huge combination of phone/OS versions.
Anyway, if Android was such an issue for developers they’d be leaving the platform – instead the platform is steadily growing.
Microsoft is late to the game. They’re gonna need to pull some rabbits out of their hats to get back into the race. I hope they do as I like the metro UI (except that terrible home screen).
Also, there’s still Blackberry and Nokia.