Analysts: Nokia Really Is Doomed By 2013, Apple To Pass It In 2011

Every trend continues forever. That's market "analysis" for you. The emperor's new clothes that is the iPhone will END sooner or later. For one thing, iPhone is expensive and tied to single expensive service provider. Lets see what happens when current world wide trend of reduction of disposable income continues to 2012. I would like to predict that people will soon notice that touchscreens actually suck ass and switch back to devices with real touch (tactile) interfaces, but I feal Apple has made touchscreens the modern equivalent of the qwerty layout. A design decisions that continues to live and suck for decades even when superior alternatives are available.

Bloodboiler

@92BuickLeSabre: Using Mynavel as completely valid sample, the iPhone has never existed and still has negative popularity.

Bloodboiler

@pixelpushing:

"You guys ever consider that maybe Nokia is the one going the way of the RAZR?"

No, because Nokia has a shit load of successful phones, and they are pretty different. For example, the E71 is very successful and many N-series phones sell pretty well too.

da-vid

@92BuickLeSabre: I thought Nokia was never big in the US to begin with? I live in Singapore, and everywhere you turn people have Nokia phones. I remember that some students did a survey at my school and over 30% of the student body have Nokia phones. My dad has a Nokia, my mom has two Nokias, and I had a Nokia up until recently (now I have a Touch Pro2).

da-vid

@pixelpushing: Are you kidding me? Periks19 was obviously not comparing the actual devices (RAZR and iPhone). He was saying how the iPhone will be like the RAZR in the way that it's going to be really hot for a few years, but will eventually fade away due to the fact that the next generation is almost exactly the same as the previous one. You *totally* missed the point of his post.

da-vid

@Professional_Iceberg_Hunter:hahaha so true

I really like the interface for one. I do not like iPhone's, though. Am I the only one? I miss <2002 :( I like technology less and less every year. Why am I so stuck on the past?

@skierpage: "Dumb" phones are certainly more capable than they used to be, but on the whole, they're still far more limited in terms of processing power and application support, so even if they're not actually dumb, they are subject to the relative comparison to phones that are on par in capability with some computers. My Sony Ericsson is far more capable than its older siblings, but compared to a Nokia E71, iPhone et al, it's pretty dumb.

Kaiser-Machead

Well, Nokia does face market share problems, but like most analysts, the report assumes past results equals future performance.

The mobile phone market, particularly in the smartphone area, is a blazingly fast moving one. Nokia is also very cash rich, and one acquisition, say, of Palm, can help them leapfrog over Apple in the market share gain game.

BTW, I'm presently using a Nokia 6650, a phone I got for free when I joined AT&T. It basically looks like a Razr, but it runs Symbian S60, so I get: Opera Mini, Symtorrent, Nokia AND Google Maps, Oggplayer and many others. Plus it has killer battery life--almost a week without charging--and an aluminum shell, which can take a beating but admittedly sort of resembles a kitchen appliance.

Jimmy1

@pixelpushing: Nokia is going open source with it's symbian OS and Maemo.

Android based devices pose some threat but I still think they're a bit far from there.

Blackberry is niche.

Samsung, HTC and others are no threat.

So yes, this is about the iphone. But don't worry we already have the third iphone that brings nothing new, it will pass like the Razr and others before it.

@icebox1701:

failed miserably of aquiring any market share composed of people who have a smartphone because their work or life style require one.

Class dismissed

Everybody, repeat after me:

"The iphone is not a smartphone" at least not marketed as one :) It's a dumbphone with installable apps - a few useful apps and a lot of useless ones. Havin 100k fart apps doesn't qualify as smart. Maybe a fashion phone.

First thing that qualified a phone as being a smartphone was the ability of the user to install apps.
Repeat after me: the USER not the MANUFACTURER

Second is the ability to do more at once. Nokia did it starting with their first symbian device and we still enjoy longer battery life than the iphone so the battery argument to multitasking is simple crap

Repeat again "Notifications received via INTERNET is not multitasking"

Wake me up when apple produces a phone that can do the following simultaneous: music, podcast download, twitter, google talk, e-mail, ssh terminal, web browser.

Than I'll consider it's future of overtaking the market. Yes it took the market consisting of people having a smartphone because it's expensive and they need to be noticed but it failed miserably of aq

Class dismissed.

@pixelpushing: The iphone is popular because of a combination of things

1 Ipod is popular if there was no ipod to get users hooked there would be no iphone

2 Apple

3 Touchscreen

and for those same reason will be why some dont like it

1 Ipod some people dont like ipods or things that are bundled itunes

2 Some dont like apple because of being a fanboy of other companies/ some dont because of there prices/ some because of there business practices.

4 Some people like buttons and would never use a touchscreen for hundreds of reasons.

@92BuickLeSabre: I don't know man, I saw 'Nokia' in Star Trek so who knows what the future brings. Hopefully more green female aliens.

pixelpushing

@ep2011: OK, but you have to acknowledge what's going on to the LEFT of this year on that chart. It's only an analysis of where it might be heading. Maybe a report like this is exactly what Nokia needs to kick them into gear to stay competitive in the market in that chart, which by the way is titled "Global Smartphone Marketshare," with reference to how you say Nokia is still doing really well internationally.

pixelpushing

This is actually a report on Nokia. Just because the iPhone is part of Nokia's problem doesn't mean this is 'all iPhone.' Just type "I hate the iPhone" and at we can accept your honesty.@symbiano:

pixelpushing

@icelight: This is what we call an analysis of the current trend. You should look at the chart and realize you're just talking about a snapshot of today, not the trend.

Sure, maybe Nokia will survive like Apple has with 6% of the OS market for a decade. Then maybe they'll make a string of good products, and create their own luck like Apple has. Maybe. I guess we'll see.

pixelpushing

@Indigen: Get off of Club Penguin and look around you.

pixelpushing

@sharkync: Best comment here.

pixelpushing

@nbolmer: Yes, it's a big "No shit, Sherlock" that no one can predict the future, but this is based on trends and analysis of those trends as of today. Who knows? Nokia may come out with an amazing product and capture the imaginations of the public and competing designers, influencing the next generations of phones following. It sounds laughable looking at that N97 above, but like Apple did two years ago, it could happen.

And hey, another iPhone/RAZR pairing... You guys ever consider that maybe Nokia is the one going the way of the RAZR?

pixelpushing

Gizmodo is all iphone. So boring. Such poor reporting.

symbiano

@freakout: Actually, Apple now sells two phones the 3GS and the entry-level carry-over from last year, the 3G. And we certainly don't know what's ahead. But Nokia really dropped the ball while losing the plot with their new flagship N97. That thing is going to get murdered in every time zone. They needed more to even catch the interest of an industry going the direction of the more nimble Pres, iPhones, and Android phones. They're probably working on something and needed a placeholder until next year. The N97/N95/etc are strictly for the greymarket/HowardsForums set. Very few people will go for that phone. Not a commanding device when they needed it.

@periks19: You have your deductions a little backwards: "Popularity" is not a feature. It's the other way around: The iPhone's popularity is because of its ahead-of-the-curve features and competitive pricing and availability. Your conclusion is reads like you think everyone who uses one is naive and doesn't know any better so they just buy what they saw on TV. No. That's something you often see charged by people who dislike Apple products. The world would have tired of it if it was really such a shallow product.

And... The 3GS is really quite improved over the 3G, but as you've typed what you did about how it 'hardly had any changes', there's no way you'd logically look at a list of comparisons, so I won't put us through it. And the iPhone is not the RAZR. Already the functionality and OS updates on the iPhone have outpaced the advances the RAZR has made in it's long life; it's not even comparable. Today's market is just starting to shift to the 'phone/pocket internet device' away from the 'simple phone' that the RAZR is. Even if a device like the iPhone becomes the 'Simple Phone' of 2012, the functionality has already been set in place. I know you probably won't notice, but the iPhone will continue to evolve within its range more than the RAZR ever did within its range.

pixelpushing

@orthorim: I don't know why, but when you said "Make more different products," I couldn't help but think of trogdor.

"Then, make a more different S"

...... And for an on-topic note, daPrinz has a point. It isn't just Apple that they need to be worried about. Android is slowly starting to creep into things, and I'm sure RIM wants to do everything it can to fight Apple. The Palm Pre wasn't exactly hurting for attention on gizmodo either.

Tell me something that my "dumb" 2 year old N95 can't do, that the just released iPhone can do. I will take my N95 over an iPhone anyday, and I know that I am not the only one. I really doubt that Nokia will do as bad as that chart says, because internationally Nokia is still doing really well.

ep2011

@NYC2PHX: LOL, 2000 and late hits it perfectly.

orthorim

@92BuickLeSabre: Same thing on the left coast. There are a few business types left over who use their corpo-drone BBs but Nokia is gone.

orthorim

@bonerobo: Interesting - it would have been a pretty dramatic shift in Japanese cell phone use if the iPhone suddenly went #1. For one thing, Japanese really prefer much smaller handsets. And also, they are using their phones all the time already - be that because they are so easy to use, or, more likely, because they can cope with the complexity. They're all gadget freaks, really.

Nokia pulled out of Japan because the market is too different from the rest of the world. Yes - Nokia doesn't sell any phones in Japan.

orthorim

@Kynes: I think it's pretty good - far more often than not, you'll be wrong if you use linear extrapolation on historic data. We can't even predict the weather 2 days in advance - and now we predict smart phone sales 2 years into the future? Sounds really silly IMO.

Doesn't change the fact that Nokia needs to get its act together. Hint: Android.

orthorim

@freakout: Much as I love the iPhone, and don't mind if everyone in the world has one too (I don't need to stand out through my phone, see?) - I also think the single product thing is hurting Apple.

The problem is that the one product strategy is at the core of Apple's designs. They figure they make one at every price point, and make it the best they can - focus all development efforts on that one product, make all the decisions on it the best they can. They end up with the best product for the price.

This is why Apple makes such insanely great products. But in the history of commerce, Apple is pretty much the only company that does this. Most others offer choices, like here's one that compromises less here and more there, and there's another one, etc. People want something different at some point, even if it's a bit less perfect. I think that's something Apple needs to learn: Make more different products. At the very least, make the iPhone in different colors...

orthorim

@Indigen: hmm, I know at least 30 people with iPhones. Most of the rest have Blackberries or some kind of Samsung flip. I don't know a single person with a Nokia. Not one. And I actually think Nokia phones are rock solid. Mind numbingly boring, but reliable.

And I'm not sure what you do to phones, but the iPhone is hardly delicate. Or huge.

rip

look the phone is simply amazing because it's a mini computer and the apps are a ton of fun with a lot of functionality BUT as long as it's exclusive to att, it's not going to expand all that fast. the chart is more believable if apple doesn't re-sign with att and makes handsets for all the carriers. also JUST a touchscreen is only going to go so far.. at some point they will need to release a qwerty keyboard phone because not everyone likes tapping on glass for every text or email.

Ala Hadji

@skierpage: Exactly. I do wish I had a smartphone, but my 'dumbphone' Nokia 5220 performs most of the tasks I'd be using an iPhone for anyway.

I have a 150mb data plan with it, so I can easily surf the net with Opera Mini, which is a phenomenal mobile browser. I use Google's Gmail app for fully featured email. I have eBuddy mobile to go on instant messaging. I have jibjib for tweeting (it supports taking photos too). I even have emulators; MeBoy runs most Game Boy games perfectly, as does Nescube with NES games.

It's an XpressMusic model too, so it is a competent audio player. Battery life is far better than any smartphone, a few days of standby or about 20-25 hours of music. Yeah, it uses the Series 40 interface, but if you can overlook the limitations, it's a lot faster and stable than most other mobile OSes. Even has Nokia Maps for free, virtually a street directory in your phone, though not necessary if you have a data plan since there's Google Maps.

So yes. I'm not stupid, I understand smartphones possess high powered processors, used to drive high power applications, but the term 'dumbphone' really isn't a fair label. Even the lowest of the low end (ie my phone) can still pack a large portion of the functionality these high end phones offer.

Passa

@92BuickLeSabre: You can install Google Maps, Opera Mini, and other free Java apps on dozens of "dumb phones" at which point it's hard to tell them from smart phones.

I think so few users do this because they don't have a data plan and are afraid of the charges, and more importantly because marketing has fooled them into thinking they have to get a smartphone to do more than phoning/photos/texting. And some people are genuinely clueless about their phone, I've shown them how to play music off its SD card and their eyes glaze over.

@92BuickLeSabre: How is everything you post so amazing all the time? you never let me down with your wittyness haha.

kudos my friend

Yes the iphone is hot right now because its popular certainly there are phones that can do and achieve more than the iphone, but the iphone is the popular thing to get right now proof the new generation hardly had any changes. If apple keeps this going by hardly changing at all i don't see them successful in the future remember the motorola razor?? it sold more than the iphone in the first 3 years didn't in the first it sold like 50 million? by apple not changing or making sometime different sooner or later people will get tired just like they did with the razor, as of today doesn't the new razors keep looking the same?@seizurelitezrfun:

periks19

@Firebrand: Thats what i thought too

@Sinan Maani: From the last time I went to Japan, I knew that was BS. If you did a little deeper, you see that they were not asking about every phone sold in Japan. It is asking about "smart phone" sales in Japan. Japan basically ignores Smart phones. Their clamshells do more than smart phones do in the rest of the world.

I knew it was BS because I saw 7 iPhones in 10 days.

[apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com]

"The BCN ranking turns out to be a weekly top 10 list of bestselling cellphones (not just smartphones) for the June 22 to 28 - the week the iPhone 3GS went on sale in Japan - and it was the new iPhones, not the old, that were the Nos. 1 and 2 bestsellers in Japan that week. Curiously, the new iPhones also appeared on a BCN survey the week before they actually went on sale, coming in at No. 174 (32GB) and No. 189 (16GB), respectively."

Yay poor reporting.

bonerobo

@Professional_Iceberg_Hunter: I agree with you. I do like smartphones, but I honestly don't need one. Plus, I need a rugged phone. Now, I know smartphones don't break that easily, but often I have my phone in my pocket while I play intense outdoor games like manhunt and such, and I don't want to worry about my phone when I dive through some bushes and land on grass. I just want to be able to call people, and text.

Exilm

Typical simple-sighted analyst crap -- if you ask me (and you did, by putting this comment box here).

They make the assumption that Apple continues to near perfectly market their product while Nokia (the current market leader, and until last year the most innovative company in the sector) makes no advances whatsoever.

The reality of technogy is often that the leaders are leapfrogged from the ones that come from behind -- the potential for this is there with both the Palm Phoenix (pre) and the Android products as they mature.

Instead of assuming that Nokia will go silently into that dark night of reduced market share, it seems more likely that they'd come out with their own contender either by using their hardware prowess to build a killer platform for the Android OS or perhaps buy their way in through an aquisition of PALM's new WEBOS technology if that proves out.

In any case, I don't see Apple being given the space to simply own the market in a linear fashion as these charts would suggest.

Andrew Pollack

@nbolmer:
While the analysis does seem awfully bold, it isn't exactly baseless. It would just be better if it were obvious to those not well versed in such things to point out that the analysis was more or less just an "educated guess," bet the trends are interesting.

@icelight:
You're right, losing half your customer base isn't "doom" at all. It's just unspeakably terrible. Now that I think about it I can't entirely tell the difference.

I understand this article, and even more so the market analysis it cites, are making quite a few wild assumptions, but losing half your market would be pretty damn bad for a company.

@Alim Rehemtulla: I hope not. Apple products annoy me. The normal way i do things on computers just dosent seem to sit right with any apple computer or device.

Pengwin

@badwolfcubed:
That's a funny comic, but it doesn't really make the point that it would like. Making projections based on historic data isn't nonsense just because it is possible to abuse such data and mislead with such predictions.

Anal-lysts, that's for sure.

thexile

I just see a graph here, with a three sets of randomly placed 6 data points, joined by a straight line segments. The one which sorta goes up is labeled as Apple for unknown reason.

atenrok

@Professional_Iceberg_Hunter: *shakes fist!*

@darway:
I think the point of the article is that Apple is poised to gain the most, while Nokia is poised to lose the most. While this doesn't necessarily make it an "Apple vs. Nokia" situation, it is obvious why someone would point out the correlation.

@freakout:
You're right, they sell ONE phone and still kick everybody's butt.
And in case someone does not like the iPhone that person will surely ignore all the BB, Pre's and Android phones to stick with an aging OS that Nokia uses.
Nokia is doomed because it will lose against the competition, not necessarily against Apple. They fail to understand that their Symbian baby needs to change a lot to survive in this market.

daPrinz

@OGHowie: I know, I know. Trust me, I don't get offended. I just get sarcastic, which might make it seem like that.

Professional_Iceberg_Hunter

@unibrow4o9: And when that happens my dear friend Watson, is when there is going to be a shooting.

There is going to be a market for dumb phones for quite a while, so don't hold your breath.

But seriously, I like the build quality of dumb phones. You can drop them bastards two ways to Sunday. They don't require much charging (I like to starve mine), and they make some great replacement rocks.

@94 Impala: Yeah, my phone is great. You best believe it. Sure, it may be a bastard phone, but like I said, it gets the job done.

Yes, I mispelled your name on purpose. I'm that bad. Dare insult my phone again Mr. Ferrari. I dare ya.

Professional_Iceberg_Hunter

"The Innovator's Dilemma"...Clayton Christensen. He explains it all :-)

[www.rainydaymagazine.com]

the only date that matters is the date Apple signs with Verizon...

fastharry

Well, with the world ending in 2012, Nokia won't have to suffer for long.

It's ok Nokia, you just keep doing what you're doing. Or if you could, I'd like one of those nifty little transformer phones before we're all gone for good.

Kyang

@badwolfcubed: I took one shit two days ago, and two shits yesterday. I'm going to need medical attention in a couple of days.

spannu

If that was a graph of Nokia vs. Android, I'd believe it.

Nokia vs. Apple, who's selling one wondrous but locked down device, not quite.

The analysts got it half right.

Nokia just needs better Ad and better prices. I'd rather a N72 than the iPhone, especially because I have an iTouch. As well, I think the iPhone gets market-share stolen from iTouch in developed asian countries, where Wifi is everywhere, and it's no different from holding an iPhone.

Charles Ip

Matt, at what point is 20% of the market "doomed"? By that standard, isn't Apple doomed right now? Haven't they been "doomed" in the personal computer market for the last decade and a half? Let's tone the hyperbole a bit in the name of sensible journalism, eh?

icelight

Not an expert, but would imagine that the margins on smartphones can be quite nice, but that they are razr thin on dumb phones.

Canoehead

I know 1 person with an iphone. He's got extremely disposable income since he lives with his parents at the age of 21. I know a lot of people with nokia phones and no interest in spending large amounts of cash on a huge, delicate smartphone that ties you to an expensive contract.

Indigen

The N900 (or Whatever the fark Nokia is going to call it) has a cell radio in it. And as a smart device it kicks the tar out of the N97. With Qt coming to that platform in the next iteration, there will be a porting path from the symbian phones to this platform. So I think Nokia has way more tricks up their sleeves. Speaking of current smartphones, the E71x easily competes w/ the blackberries if not the iPhone.

And as far as 'dumb' phones go. I have a Nokia 'dumb' phone that surfs the net (and allows me to tether my N810), provides contacts, lets me read my email and do google maps. It is hardly dumb. So, yeah, I think Nokia can ride the 'dumb' phone products for a very long time.

microe

@Professional_Iceberg_Hunter: Apology accepted.

Dummy.

Canoehead

@Daniel Pullen: lol, pwned.

mullingitover

Yes - I had a razr for several years and absolutely loved it. Now i have an iphone and absolutely love that. In the future - who knows?

sharkync

APPLE WILL TAKEOVER THE WORLD!!

Alim Rehemtulla

Nokia unfortunately has been "2000 and late" with everything, the all too familiar doing the same thing and expecting different results.

So why the fuck does everyone that owns one of these swear it's the best thing since sliced bread?! Personally it has nothing over my iPhone & when I get my HTC Magic (or whatever they are calling it here in the US) I'm sure I'll feel the same way. Yet everyone that has been a Nokia fan defends them even with their horrible phones. I've owned a Nokia before too. I took it back 4 days later cause it was a piece of cheap plastic that didn't do much.

biggerx

@Sinan Maani:

Wow.

@badwolfcubed:

I thought the same thing when reading this article.

the_lane

@Daniel Pullen:
[mashable.com]

Sinan Maani

The idea that this is even so much as an informed analysis is absolutely re-god-damn-diculous. The smartphone landscape 6 months from now is nebulous, the landscape 3 years from now? Asking a magic 8-ball what Nokia, and Apple's future is would yield equally meaningful results. The n86 8mp is an excellent phone, whether or not the n97 is a good one (it's not). Nokia has an extremely broad line and Symbian could go in any direction between now and then. The iPhone craze could very abruptly be overshadowed (anyone remember the razr craze?)

This article fails.

nbolmer

@Holy shirt! a talking squirrel! 「Tayler」:

Does it really matter why it's selling?

Using NYC as my completely valid sample, the iPhone is already eleventytrillion times more popular than all the Nokia phones combined.

As far as we're concerned Nokia has already ceased to exist. Your pretty pictures are just the coroner's report.

@Professional_Iceberg_Hunter:

Just to clarify, people aren't calling you dumb just because you use a dumbphone.

@Professional_Iceberg_Hunter:
I have one buddy. I was actually complaining that a company doing poorly in the smartphone market means that it is doomed. Bullshit on that one. Smart phones aren't the only thing that matters.

TheCrudMan

@seizurelitezrfun: but the ibrick is only selling well because it's like the whole ipod in the music player market, if you don't have one then you are either 1) poor, or 2) stupid.

I like my not iphone

Holy shirt! a talking squirrel! 「Tayler」

@Professional_Iceberg_Hunter: You're not a degenerate, maybe just not as progressive as everyone else. If you're happy with it that's a good thing, but soon every phone will be a smart phone, whether you like it or not.

unibrow4o9

@Professional_Iceberg_Hunter: Just because it's dumb doesn't mean it isn't useful.

I'm sure your phone is perfectly good at making calls. Maybe even great. Most certainly better than my smart phone is. It's just not very capable when it comes to doing anything else. It can't handle the complicated problems. We love it anyway. Just the way it is. It's just kind of dumb.

That's incredible considering Apple sell ONE phone and Nokia have a wide range of models to cater for everyone.

marcus_ivo

Considering the I Phone has sold very poorly in countries such as Japan and is not even available in China, i cant really see it becoming the market leader. Also the I Phone isn't even the number one selling Phone in either the USA or Europe, largely because it has exclusivity deals with AT...& O2 etc. And i cants see mobile networks such as Vodafone and Orange going bankrupt because all of their customers want an I Phone.

Daniel Pullen

I believe this chart can be likened to the one referenced in July 3rd's xkcd: [www.xkcd.com]

badwolfcubed

@freakout:

And yet the "brick-with-no-buttons" is selling like crazy, even when they release a version with no visible changes and Nokia is shrinking in market share.

seizurelitezrfun

And what about Blackberry and, to a lesser extent thus far, Android? I'm sure those platforms will be hurting Nokia also. The smartphone market seems to be too segmented to pin only Apple vs. Nokia. I only wish the PC market was that way.

darway

Rubbish.

Apple sell one phone. That's it. One. If you like your phones in a shape or size other than "brick-with-no-buttons" - which is the vast majority of the wider handset market - then you don't go with Apple.

Apple would need a hell of a lot more variety in their lineup to overtake Nokia.

@TheCrudMan: Why do people insist on calling them dumb phones? No, I don't need to check the internet when I am among friends. No, I don't need to check my facebook status while driving my car.

Let me apologize for all the people who enjoy their 3 day long battery life and just text and call. I sincerely apologize on behalf of all us degenerates.

Professional_Iceberg_Hunter

Nokia is doomed in smartphones market. It is strong in low end and smartphones market right now. But, most of the world is transitioning to smartphones from low end. So, it will hurt it more than expected.

tillman

From the title, I thought Nokia will be bankrupt by 2013...

Firebrand

Nokia is doomed in smartphone market maybe...but they will continue to dominate overseas in dumb phone market.

TheCrudMan

@pixelpushing: It's not a pairing, it's an example of the fickle nature of these "trends". Absolutely laughable.

nbolmer