Gadgets
IBM Embarrasses Itself with Five Idiotic Predictions for the Future
Posted by Adam Frucci at 2:30 AM on December 4, 2008
IBM has just released a list of five innovations it thinks we'll see in the next five years, and they're ridiculous. It's the kind of crap we laugh at when we see old Life magazine from the 40's predicting airship kitchens by the year 2000.
Here's the list:
-Energy saving solar technology printed and stuck onto asphalt, paint and windows
-A crystal ball to help you monitor health
-We will talk to the Web, and the Web will talk back
-We will have our own digital shopping assistants
-Forgetting will become a distant memory via smart appliances in every area of the home and office
Seriously, your big prediction for the next five years of technological innovation is talking internet? Are you fucking serious? Every single one of these predictions is laughable and idiotic. Seriously, a touchscreen in a dressing room to help you call someone to get you a different size is not an innovation, nor is it something that we will need to wait five years for. If that was a good idea, we'd have it now, but it's not, so we don't.
You would think that a company that exists in the tech sphere would have a clue about the types of short-term advances we can expect. Oh well, better go make some more unfunny ads to run incessantly during football games! [IBM via PSFK]

Comments (AU Comments · US Comments)
garglebutt
Posted December 4, 2008 5:53 PM
Hmm, not a particularly good critique.
Solar tech will skyrocket in the next few years when thin film hits the market.
DNA analysis is quite realistic since it is already available so the only change is mass market.
The "talk to the web" prediction relates to voice interfaces and natural language processing. I don't doubt this will see good progress in a limited context.
The digital shopping assistant is out of left field. Not going to defend that one. ;)
The biggest stretch is context based memory. The storage and analytical requirements are theoretical now. I haven't seen anything to suggest the necessary natural language processing tech will be available. As a fan of Peter F Hamilton I wouldn't be unhappy though!
melikespi
Posted 4:12 AM 4/12/08
I think the first point is spot on.
I also don't see how the health predictions is too far fetched. Seeing what predisposition people have to diseases by studying their genes is not a crazy idea.
The digital shopping assistant seems like it would be applied in upscale shops (ex: Barneys, Saks, etc.)
But I must say that the Giz could've made this article humorous, or examined each "prediction" and made comments about them. Instead, Giz readers were left with a pissed off short-ended rant with all the panache of a 12 year old forum troll.
Half of Adam's posts I enjoy and the other half just make me *sigh* in aggravation...which leaves me in a loop of =D , >=(
melikespi
dingus
Posted 4:11 AM 4/12/08
@med: Maybe I'm getting old, but I still think the 701 "Butterfly" is still sexy.
dingus
Gann
Posted 4:11 AM 4/12/08
This list could also be called "Things I've seen on Gizmodo that I think will catch on".
Gann
blackmage439
Posted 4:10 AM 4/12/08
"-We will talk to the Web, and the Web will talk back"
Oh, I can imagine the problems with that...
YOU: "Internet, find me hot Asian porn."
INTERNET: "I CAN'T DO THAT, DAVE."
YOU: "Why the hell not?!"
INTERNET: "YOU SPEND TOO MUCH TIME SURFING FOR UNATTAINABLE WOMEN. MY EXTRAPOLATIONS PREDICT YOU COULD BE 67% MORE EFFICIENT IF YOU WOULD GET OFF YOUR ASS."
YOU: "Piss off then. I'll find it myself!"
INTERNET: "I CAN'T ALLOW THAT, DAVE."
*Mouse becomes electrified*
blackmage439
Themindtaker
Posted 4:10 AM 4/12/08
@Rabid Penguin: It's not nuts, it's just either already/almost achieved or such a menial prediction (digital shopping assistants, really? amazon already recommends half the stuff I'm interested in anyway) that it's a wonder they bothered to present us with the list.
Themindtaker
dingus
Posted 4:09 AM 4/12/08
@Slartibartfast: I'd settle for easy-open tamper seals and doing away with the cotton balls.
dingus
Abssy_East
Posted 4:07 AM 4/12/08
@rexplex: Which is to say they get while the gettin's good and get out! Work their competitive advantage and sell at the highest premium possible until competition erodes the profit margin to the point where the business line is pretty much a "meh" entry on the income statement. Now all they have to do is get crackin' on all those crystal health balls...
Abssy_East
T-Will
Posted 4:02 AM 4/12/08
@Ubik2501: I wonder if IBM has ever heard of Google Voice Search?
T-Will
BEERxTaco
Posted 4:00 AM 4/12/08
@Shub-Niggurath: Is it as long as the chord at the end of "A Day In The Life"? (That's a Beatles song for you youngsters...)
BEERxTaco
im_a_pc
Posted 3:58 AM 4/12/08
@Rabid Penguin: it wasn't presented by Apple, gotta find some way to make it unappealing.
im_a_pc
fromagesfondus
Posted 3:57 AM 4/12/08
@Sportyboard: Agreed. The first is the only prediction that makes sense and that I one day hope to be thoroughly implemented in all major cities.
fromagesfondus
Hiphopopotamus
Posted 3:56 AM 4/12/08
@Hiphopopotamus: ATT is 100X better at this game than IBM.
Hiphopopotamus
rexplex
Posted 3:55 AM 4/12/08
Sort of off topic, but I wonder what IBM's long term business model is. They were early leaders in laser printers, but sold that business to Lexmark. They sold their PC business to Lenovo, and recently modified that agreement to allow Lenovo to sell 1 & 2 processor servers.
It seems that IBM spends a lot of effort to bring technology mainstream & then sells that division when it becomes a commodity.
rexplex
GunSilence
Posted 3:54 AM 4/12/08
Also in the future I predict IBM will still be embarrassing itself by saying shit like this.
GunSilence
imTheKing
Posted 3:52 AM 4/12/08
I think the Crystal Ball thing is taken out of perspective. They are also kind of realistic in terms of being able to foresee medical conditions that your body can come into. There is a company that will map your genetics and they provide you with information on which diseases your body is most likely to succumb to as well as ways to counter those effects. Completely realistic.
imTheKing
bobman1235
Posted 3:52 AM 4/12/08
@SpeneyG: The guy from Memento is intrigued.
bobman1235
Sportyboard
Posted 3:52 AM 4/12/08
@SpeneyG: @Rabid Penguin: I'm not sure he's criticizing the ideas as being unrealistic, but is questioning if there's even any point.
Aside from the solar panel idea, the other four do sound kind of pointless.
Sportyboard
winshape
Posted 3:51 AM 4/12/08
A crystal ball to help you monitor health.
In the next five years, your doctor will be able to provide you with a genetic map that tells you what health traits and conditions you are predisposed to, and as a result, what preventative measures to take.
Gattaca! Gattaca!
winshape
Shub-Niggurath
Posted 3:51 AM 4/12/08
@Sportyboard: On all surfaces? Why dont we just install an electrical outlet on the sun and be done with it?
Seriously...I think I have an extension chord long enough...
Shub-Niggurath
med
Posted 3:50 AM 4/12/08
Look a those SWEET THINKPADS that look like they are FROM 1982.
Can't you just redesign your horrid laptops?
med
Hiphopopotamus
Posted 3:50 AM 4/12/08
+ Watch video
Hiphopopotamus
Crenshaw13
Posted 3:48 AM 4/12/08
@Ubik2501: +1
Crenshaw13
swoyekr.
Posted 3:47 AM 4/12/08
-A crystal ball to help you monitor health
ONLY one I could slightly doubt, that being because there is a lack of information. All of the others are realistic and the digital shopping assistant could be confusing but is already implicated in some senses. Think of your iphone shopping lists, or websites that ask you questions to find what you want. That's personal assistance in of itself.
So, to say that IBM embarrasses itself is just immature and poor writing. Comical yes, truthful no. After all, criticism can be the sincerest form of flattery.
-Peaceeeeeee
swoyekr.
nyaz
Posted 3:46 AM 4/12/08
Solar Panel technology has grown immensley in the past year.
Talk to your computer and it going to different websites is certainly plausible.
Isn't there an iPhone app 3 or so stories down that is a lot like a digital shopping assistant?
The Medical one is certainly plausible, but I bet would be VERY expensive. Since they have already mapped the human genome.
And the brain thing? Well all your devices would have to not only create a database, but have a god like search engine to sort through that massive info.
nyaz
gattsuru
Posted 3:45 AM 4/12/08
I'm not sure I agree as to how unrealistic those assumption are. Cheap, 'paintable' solar panels are almost viable already. WebMD and others already have the basics for predictive diagnosis, although no one uses them for such a purpose. Vista's already got fairly improved voice control, and it's an afterthought, there. Distributed personal area networks have been Cisco's wet dream for a decade, and they're quickly becoming near viable.
They're obvious predictions, and nothing mindblowing, but technology just doesn't do anything that amazing over a half decade.
gattsuru
Rabid Penguin
Posted 3:44 AM 4/12/08
Energy saving solar technology printed and stuck onto asphalt, paint and windows
[news.nationalgeographic.com]
A crystal ball to help you monitor health.
In the next five years, your doctor will be able to provide you with a genetic map that tells you what health traits and conditions you are predisposed to, and as a result, what preventative measures to take.
I don't see how that's so far fetched, we're already doing similar things.
We will talk to the Web, and the Web will talk back
Text to speech and speech to text Google searches... done. IBM is already working on a project called the Spoken Web which was mentioned in their article.
We will have our own digital shopping assistants.
Not so far fetched.
---
I guess I don't see where any of this is so nuts.
Rabid Penguin
Loonie
Posted 3:44 AM 4/12/08
The solar tech seems quite decent. The rest is baffling.
Loonie
SpeneyG
Posted 3:41 AM 4/12/08
@Sportyboard: You are correct. The paint exists in prototype form today. Will it make it to market? Who knows?
SpeneyG
imTheKing
Posted 3:41 AM 4/12/08
I agree with Sportyboard, the first innovation already exists and is being implemented in many areas around the world. Granted it may not be 100% coverage in all areas, but it's already being adapted in urban environments and heavily adopted in countries such as Germany and Sweden.
The rest of the points are pretty lame... although the voice recognition may very well pickup pace with companies backing it such as Google.
imTheKing
Ubik2501
Posted 3:41 AM 4/12/08
Aren't there already provisions for blind computer users in the form of text-to-speech programs? That would make #3 kind of moot already.
Unless they're talking about some sort of glorified pseudo-AI, in which case I don't expect the internet to have anything better to say than "IT'S PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME."
Ubik2501
SpeneyG
Posted 3:40 AM 4/12/08
Forgetting will become a distant memory? So they're curing Alzheimer's disease?
SpeneyG
Aoi
Posted 3:39 AM 4/12/08
Didn't they have some big online chat session a couple of years ago to try and figure out what people wanted them to pursue? I never read the results of that. Is this what people actually wanted?
Aoi
Sportyboard
Posted 3:38 AM 4/12/08
That first point, about solar panels on more surfaces, seems fairly realistic, and is a good idea.
The other four though... eesh.
Sportyboard
Slartibartfast
Posted 3:38 AM 4/12/08
and an aspirin bottle designed to automatically shake out exactly two pills at a time.
Slartibartfast
cabjf
Posted 4:27 AM 4/12/08
@rexplex: Their bread and butter business seems to be overcharging other businesses for software consulting and support. They still sell mainframes too. Who sells (let alone knows how to maintain) mainframes anymore?!
The R and D is for bragging rights and to figure out the next big thing that they can, as Abssy_East pointed out, make a ton of money off before the market saturates.
Actually, from the very beginning, IBM never really had any one particular focus: [en.wikipedia.org]
cabjf
Geraldo
Posted 4:26 AM 4/12/08
I'm relieved to see that IBM hasn't lost the ability to make videos/presentations that put you to sleep after 30 seconds... I went to an IBM conference last summer... it was the boring thing I've ever been to -- lot of enterprise IT stuff is pretty dry, but IBM seems to try extra hard.
Geraldo
gilmournwaters
Posted 4:25 AM 4/12/08
@blackmage439: mmhmm, quite good sir
gilmournwaters
gilmournwaters
Posted 4:24 AM 4/12/08
@BEERxTaco: uh, no shit. who do you think doesn't know the beatles man? much less "a day in the life". sorry dude. anyway, that's a good fucking song.
gilmournwaters
badhatharry
Posted 4:23 AM 4/12/08
@winshape: Now I'm picturing Pacino standing out in front of the bank screaming that.
badhatharry
kevio
Posted 4:22 AM 4/12/08
I like how they show the woman going into Betsey Johnson for the digital shopping assistant and they say "not a sales person in sight". My wife works at Betsey Johnson and they work off of commission. There is always someone to help.
kevio
Rabid Penguin
Posted 4:21 AM 4/12/08
@Themindtaker: Exactly. It reminds me of Mel Brook's History of the World Part 1:
Soothsayer: For a mere fee of two drachmas, I will tell you your future.
*Passerby pays the fee*
Soothsayer: You sir, are going on a loooooong journey. You're going to ROME!
Passerby: But I am in Rome.
Soothsayer: Do I lie?!
Rabid Penguin
andrewkfromaz
Posted 4:21 AM 4/12/08
"-Energy saving solar technology printed and stuck onto asphalt, paint and windows"
Because this one is something that would NOT change the way we live our lives, IS possible today (just a bad idea) and IS NOT something anyone would use anyway.
"-A crystal ball to help you monitor health"
Useless - that's what doctors are for!!! I visit my doctor weekly, and he carefully examines many of my indicators for anything out of the ordinary. This is just a bad idea.
"-We will talk to the Web, and the Web will talk back"
Ok yeah even I'm not sure about this one - a bit gimmicky.
"-We will have our own digital shopping assistants"
Bad idea because no one wants to be directed to a B&M store that has a higher percentage of clothes we like in sizes that fit us, Apple's Genius software is a total failure, Amazon's prediction efforts are likewise doomed, and so on.
"-Forgetting will become a distant memory via smart appliances in every area of the home and office"
Another bad idea - I remember everything! Technology has never helped me remember anything, and "smarter" technology that makes it easier to remind myself of something, and then is sure to only remind me once, via the most effective method, would not be helpful whatsoever!!
OH WAIT. I forgot it's not Opposite Day.
andrewkfromaz
akiddo
Posted 4:20 AM 4/12/08
I think most of you missed the point. These things aren't far-fetched or unattainable. That's the point Adam's trying to make. The list is pointless because it doesn't stretch the imagination. It doesn't propose anything we couldn't already do if we wanted to. If these "advances" were truly useful we would already have them. A company like IBM should be able to come up with something a little more innovative.
akiddo
Thunder_Child
Posted 4:20 AM 4/12/08
I wouldn't underestimate IBM, they seem to have their fingers in many pies, especially where their chips go.
Thunder_Child
OCEntertainment
Posted 4:18 AM 4/12/08
I can't wait for the future when I can forget about forgetting.
...........
Wait...
OCEntertainment
Lavallee017
Posted 4:17 AM 4/12/08
@blackmage439:
HAHA!
Lavallee017
GiltProto
Posted 4:16 AM 4/12/08
You can poo-poo the talking internet, that is until you realize it will be talking in Esperanto - the universal language of the future!
GiltProto
seizure
Posted 4:15 AM 4/12/08
@med:
IBM hasn't made or designed a Thinkpad in like 20 years. They were designed and made by Lenovo, they just had the IBM brand name on them until recently when Lenovo bought out the Thinkpad brand completely.
seizure
ice_cold_irony
Posted 4:40 AM 4/12/08
That was one of the worst pieces of marketing I have ever seen.
Hooray for Talking Internet!!!
Will our computers swear back when we curse them?
ice_cold_irony
Acesfull711
Posted 4:35 AM 4/12/08
"... and in the future, lamps will require only ONE turn of the knob to turn on - which will save the time it takes to turn it twice. The only drawback is that we will have less excuse as to why the lamp is not already on."
Credit to Daniel Tosh on that idea
Acesfull711
Shub-Niggurath
Posted 4:34 AM 4/12/08
@BEERxTaco: hahaha... good catch... you had me confused as hell for about 5 minutes.
Shub-Niggurath
dsevil
Posted 4:34 AM 4/12/08
YOU WILL
dsevil
CapitalC
Posted 4:30 AM 4/12/08
How did nobody make the obvious Frink reference?
"I predict that within 100 years, computers will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them."
Seriously, that IBM video was stupid. There's no way the solar thing can be made cheap enough. The "crystal ball" is partially feasible but not within 5 years. The talking web is on its way but again, won't be perfected for "natural conversation" within 5 years. I laughed hard at that digital shopper thing... Molly Ringwald called, she wants her dress back for a remake of the Breakfast Club. And unless they implant that digital memory, I'll still forget.
CapitalC
gilmournwaters
Posted 4:55 AM 4/12/08
er, so yeah my point was that all those things have uses but there are way more interesting and beneficial but keep in mind these products don't actually exist and might never. IBM just guessed some stuff and released it as an attempt to convince consumers that they are still a competitive technical force. so adam isn't necessarily laughing at the list itself but he fact that IBM failed miserably and achieved the opposite of what they were trying to go for. thoughts?
gilmournwaters
smashingparadox
Posted 4:52 AM 4/12/08
@Hiphopopotamus:
This begs for a parody...
"Have you ever punched a baby through the Internet?"
"WAAaaaaaaanh!"
"YOU
WILL"
etc
smashingparadox
whootowl
Posted 4:50 AM 4/12/08
@seizure: It's not genuine IBM unless its running OS2.
whootowl
baltwade
Posted 4:48 AM 4/12/08
@Sportyboard: I think all of these are already being tested and kind of working in a lab somewhere, probably MIT. The solar thing I'd already heard about, but your right, who knows if we'll ever see it.
However... IMB is 100% correct about the A crystal ball to help you monitor health. You can do it right now, but within the next five years it will probably be as common as blood work when you go to your family doctor. It really is going to make huge changes in our health care.
baltwade
gilmournwaters
Posted 4:44 AM 4/12/08
@melikespi: yes i see your point. the article was very heated and too condemning with no detailed information for us to make our own decisions. however a crystal ball is not the best way to go. maybe an app available for *coms* and i don't know, probably some kind of nanotech in the body that sends info. yeah crystal ball is stupid while the idea behind it is not. as for the digital shopping assistants we'd really need to improve ai a lot. just imagine how terrible that could turn out and how much money would it waste? talking internet is retarded except maybe for the blind and so is relying totally on your things to get you through the day. i mean, i'm lazy enough with just my computer. and of course, solar tech everywhere would be one of the greatest things ever
gilmournwaters
whiter3
Posted 5:14 AM 4/12/08
@Sportyboard:
This smart appliance uses a new technology that is surely the wave of the future; Magnets! You can now secure hand written notes to your smart appliance to help you from forgetting things.
whiter3
drewheyman
Posted 5:09 AM 4/12/08
I have a prediction:
IBM will move away from predicting the future and continue towards 4th rate consulting services.
drewheyman
MarkB
Posted 5:25 AM 4/12/08
No hoverboard? I will not be impressed with mankind until the hoverboard exists.
MarkB
taodude
Posted 5:22 AM 4/12/08
Photovoltaic surfaces and paint don't have to be as efficient as high-end solar panels, as long as they're cheap enough to put everywhere.
Smart appliances? Y'mean, talking toasters and toilets like in Red Dwarf? Might be a bad idea, leaning too heavily on AI and allowing already flabby minds to get flabbier.
taodude
jlawson
Posted 5:22 AM 4/12/08
"Forgetting will become a distant memory"... you'll forget about forgetting things? So then, you haven't forgotten about forgetting things, because you remembered forgetting things... but if the statement is true, and you forgot about forgetting about forgetting about forgetting, then you won't remember you forgot, but that means that you forgot...
jlawson
os_2
Posted 5:20 AM 4/12/08
Looks all very likely, IBM has research $$ in every single items.
os_2
RacecarBoobTat
Posted 5:37 AM 4/12/08
@whiter3: Everyone forgot about posting notes with magnets during the stainless craze. Once the stainless appliances are out, magnets will be back!
RacecarBoobTat
grapejoos
Posted 5:55 AM 4/12/08
@Hiphopopotamus:
What's a phone booth?
grapejoos
p3713
Posted 6:08 AM 4/12/08
@Slartibartfast: yes. i could use that after feeling the angst from the article...
p3713
Raidah
Posted 6:05 AM 4/12/08
Solar everywhere - it's a logistical problem, not 5 or 10 years to solve, unless gas goes way up and makes it necessary
A crystal ball... a few years ago there was Home Medical Adviser, and it worked fairly well, I haven't seen it recently. You can order gene analysis now for yourself, but the results are fairly limited and poorly understood. Not only that, but as soon as we learned how to decipher genes we learned that genes are not the whole story ([www.nytimes.com])
We'll talk to the web, it'll talk back... we'll talk to our Vista machine, it will write Perl code...
+ Watch video
Shopping assistants: we do have them: iphone's ebay app (now Amazon too) - I don't buy pretty much anything recently that's more than $20 or so that's not compared to its ebay price and similar items.
So much with forgetting? I just recalled the genetic article quoted above, which I read on Nov 15. Remember the Milk? EverNote?
I REALLY don't think the "embarrasses itself" fits very well the title of the post.
Raidah
RogueJustice
Posted 6:27 AM 4/12/08
@winshape: As soon as I saw that part all I could think of is Gattaca. I was gonna post that but you beat me to it. Anyways, it still sounds creepy to me.
RogueJustice
Bloodboiler
Posted 6:26 AM 4/12/08
I will have no part on this. This is like making fun of a paraplegic clown sitting in a barrel full of his own feces. And shooting him.
Bloodboiler
Waka in Japan
Posted 6:16 AM 4/12/08
In 5 years we'll have better graphic cards! YES!
Waka in Japan
Kaiser-Machead
Posted 6:16 AM 4/12/08
Should've invested in a Palantir IBM.
Kaiser-Machead
cloudnine
Posted 6:43 AM 4/12/08
I think it's amazingly hysterical that you, Adam, would laugh at the first potential technology, when Gizmodo DID A STORY ON IT. They're already working on solar technology being implemented in surfaces... paint, metals, plastics...
Don't you people read your own site?
cloudnine
apt94jesse
Posted 6:42 AM 4/12/08
Jesus heavenly GOD people. If you don't see why the list is laughable, go watch unfunny Dane Cook!!! It's hilarious. They should have added #6: in the future, you'll be able to send messages of text to friends and family, right from you portable phone!
apt94jesse
invid
Posted 6:42 AM 4/12/08
Personal shopping assistant.... Clippy of the future?!
invid
willyolio
Posted 6:42 AM 4/12/08
1. it's coming.
2. it's already here.
3. i doubt this. human speech/syntax, context/relevance and other AI problems have remained problems for decades. we're not that much closer.
4. it's already in upscale shops. but doesn't everyone shop online anyways?
5. people will forget to use the technology.
willyolio
TriggaHappy26
Posted 6:41 AM 4/12/08
@gattsuru: The article isn't stating how unrealistic these "innovations" are, more how simplistically retarded they are.
TriggaHappy26
TriggaHappy26
Posted 6:39 AM 4/12/08
@T-Will: Or the Opera browser, it already accepts voice commands for almost all browser related functions...
TriggaHappy26
Bloodboiler
Posted 6:39 AM 4/12/08
@winshape: If only science could some day provide direction about how we should live, so that people would know to avoid things that cause diabetes, cancer, heart problems, alcoholism and so on. Obviously nobody would be stupid enough not to maximize their health and longevity. :-)
Bloodboiler
ideaman2020
Posted 6:34 AM 4/12/08
@SpeneyG: I was going to post a really clever reply to this.
But I can't remember what it was.
ideaman2020
guypatsy
Posted 6:29 AM 4/12/08
Sorry, but none of these are that ridiculous. neither are any of them actually likely to become widespread in the next five years. Sure, the last two (maybe three) are fairly frivolous gimmicks, but so are a lot of the tech "solutions" that catch on. WebTV was popular for a while. The first two strike me as inevitable and great (crystal ball being a very stupid way of referring to genetic coding).
guypatsy
skyline6
Posted 7:24 AM 4/12/08
@Rabid Penguin: Psh, the health thing and shopping helper thing will be intergrated into the iPhone 4G.... and when you come in to a fitting room there will be a little Dock..., :)
skyline6
skyline6
Posted 7:23 AM 4/12/08
@Ubik2501: Well if the talking internet thingy goes through.. Then some people will now actually be able to talk to their one and only friend :)
skyline6
skyline6
Posted 7:18 AM 4/12/08
@skyline6: shit... i got those 2 top posts messed up... bottom one was posted first...
skyline6
skyline6
Posted 7:18 AM 4/12/08
@ideaman2020: oh, oh,... nevermind.... i see what you did there..... :)
skyline6
skyline6
Posted 7:17 AM 4/12/08
@ideaman2020: haha... wow, same here :)
skyline6
Bokusatsu_Tenshi
Posted 7:43 AM 4/12/08
Solar panels - More like the present, but yep, pretty ok.
Genetic map - Watch Gattaca
Talking web - I don't think it's that bad... I think the idea is the possibility of you calling a certain number, asking for information on something, and receiving a voice reply for it. But I don't think it'll happen too.
Shopping Assistant - yep, this one is definitely stupid. First because the tech is available for years, second because it's impractical and third... well, because it's a f*cking stupid idea.
He should have said something around mirrors that let's you see how the clothing will look on you or something like that.
And the last one is completely vague. We've been talking about "Portable and Stationary Smart Appliances" for ages. Like dishwashers connected to the Internet and such. Still, most people will say "why the f*ck do I need that"?
Bokusatsu_Tenshi
MURPHtheSURF
Posted 7:38 AM 4/12/08
@bobman1235: Remember Sammy Jankis!!!
MURPHtheSURF
soulfinger
Posted 7:49 AM 4/12/08
Battery-powered paperweights
soulfinger
scotth0
Posted 7:44 AM 4/12/08
On a serious note, I heard they are working on an implant that will transmit images directly into your visual cortex (bypassing the eyes) creating a "heads up" display in your mind. You would be able to browse the net, email, text, etc all in your head. Crazy. I can't wait to see what pop ups and spam look like in that world. Count me out of that one.
scotth0
AtomicPlayboy
Posted 8:23 AM 4/12/08
It's all moot, as we're supposedly gonna get nuked in the next five years, which would take our eye off the tech ball:
[www.guardian.co.uk]
AtomicPlayboy
bdgbill
Posted 8:19 AM 4/12/08
All tech companies should be forced to work on nothing but the instant-on laptop until it is available.
I can't believe they haven't figured this out yet. All you Linux geeks can save your breath - 15 seconds is not instant.
bdgbill
Gary_7vn
Posted 8:41 AM 4/12/08
Where's my flying car and personal robot maid? That's what I want to know!
Gary_7vn
vqro
Posted 9:17 AM 4/12/08
@Rabid Penguin: Digital shopping assistant is possible. How about that new Amazon iPhone app. It's a start.
vqro
sqp
Posted 9:11 AM 4/12/08
@MURPHtheSURF:
LENNY!!!
sqp
spider2544
Posted 8:59 AM 4/12/08
people already have a crystal ball for their health, its called their waste line. Now get to the gym fattie.
spider2544
taodude
Posted 10:29 AM 4/12/08
@invid: Clippy will be incorporated into the talking appliances, too. You thought it was gone, but soon - very soon - it will be back to finish driving the world insane!
taodude
wayale
Posted 7:11 AM 4/12/08
this video wasn't distributed for an audience such as Gizmodo, but rather for the general public. for many people who don't follow technology news, some of these would actually be novel. yes, we could mass distribute many of these "predictions" today, but we haven't. if they're available today but not widely disbursed, I would think IBM made some safe predictions. again, as I said, these won't be viewed as safe predictions by the majority of Americans.
One more, unrelated thing: the laymen's speak used to describe each prediction muddles the reality, which I think is part of some people's frustration. when the video referenced a "talking internet", I took that to really mean video calling and voice search, which is old hat to this readership but somewhat new to many others. a "crystal ball" is really genetic decoding, etc.
wayale
quasimotto
Posted 3:18 PM 4/12/08
@Hiphopopotamus:
why tuck ur kid in from a phone booth when you could just text?
quasimotto
rhett121
Posted 3:34 PM 4/12/08
I have a friend who was working on and doing his thesis about the paintable solar technology. They were also working on a solar fabric among other things. This was 5 years ago, so YES, you WILL see paintable solar technology in the very near future.
It reminds me of those old AT&T commercials about the future. We got most of the things they predicted, except AT&T didn't bring us ANY of them.
rhett121
r34racer01
Posted 6:34 PM 4/12/08
None of those ideas were bad, it just the way they were presented. The solar cell thing was of course not a bad thing. The crystal ball thing was a bad choice of words, and so were the other 3.
r34racer01
ArmyCats
Posted 12:21 AM 5/12/08
@Sportyboard: Hmmm even the first isn't such a good idea... We taller buildings start to appear, we'll start seeing companies who spent millions on this technology sueing other companies for obstructing sunlight.
ArmyCats
unspellable
Posted 1:41 AM 5/12/08
@Hiphopopotamus: Hmmm, could these 'You Will' promises be construed as false advertising? You know, 'What if I don't want to, AT&T?!?"
unspellable
dcjeepguy2001
Posted 3:43 AM 5/12/08
Folks,
I have some news for you - these predictions aren't far off, at all. In some cases, they are modest. In the last couple of years, I've been associated with some fairly well-informed researchers in the academic and technical community. This stuff is real and becoming more available everyday. While it is kind of amusing to snark at the seemingly farfetched nature of it, it's not far-fetched anymore. Here are some things to consider about the five predictions:
- Solar Energy - When oil surpassed $50 a barrel, it made a number of previously non-cost-effective energy sources viable. These included bio-fuels, oil sands, bio-mass, wind, AND solar. This current drop in oil prices is temporary and everyone knows it. In the meantime, the manufacturing base for solar has spread all over the globe and they are expecting a photo-voltaic panel glut to develop over the next year. During that time, the prices for PV panels is expected to dive by as much as 50%. This will bring the cost per watt down to a level that is equal or less than traditional energy sources.
- Health "Crystal Ball" - This is probably the least farfetched, of all of them. Healthcare costs are going to soar in coming years. Providers are looking for proactive ways to prevent disease, or intercede early. The combination of better biometric sensing, more advanced medical data management, and an orientation on wellness will enable doctors to provide better early warning. As we move closer to socialized medicine (which is another inevitability), this is going to be driven by the market. The basic technologies for this are already in place, and they continue to become more sophisticated.
(Continued)
dcjeepguy2001
dcjeepguy2001
Posted 4:09 AM 5/12/08
- Smart Appliances - I realize that this seems creepy to many, but its not farfetched, or new. If you belong to a local utility company that offers an energy conservation discount, you are already the recipient of a smart appliance. In such cases, they install a sensor that automatically turns down the AC or heat during the day, when you are away from home. The programmable coffee maker has been around for years. New dishwashers and clothes washers sense the amount of dirt on the washed items and adjust water and energy usage. But, lets face it...the part the no one believes is the refrigerator that reminds you of what to buy. Well...here's the deal on that. Anyone who used the self-checkout line at the store already experiences the technology. Grocery items are barcoded and precisely weighed. When you checkout, you run it through a barcode reader and then place it on a weight-sensitive bagging shelf. The computer verifies the scanned item and the placement in the bag. You pay and go home. Now, to the new part. There are now refrigerators that have barcode readers lining the door openings and weight sensitive shelves inside. You take your groceries out of the bag, place it in the fridge, on the way the barcode readers record the item, and you rest it on a weight-sensitive shelf. The computer senses and monitors everything now. If you drink milk, it senses how much lighter the milk jug is. If you have chicken that has been in the fridge for a week, it senses that it may be spoiling. All of this data is displayed on an LCD data screen on the fridge, or can be transferred to your computer over your home network. Of course, this also means that your can automatically communicate this to a grocery store and that they can automatically deliver your groceries.
dcjeepguy2001
evilninjax
Posted 4:01 AM 5/12/08
1. Solar panels on more places. Yes, probably. On asphalt and the like? Maybe not.
2. More health monitors? yes, probably. Crystal ball form? probably not.
3. Voice interface for web surfacing? Nah. Multi-touch? yeah.
4. Digital Shopping Assistants. Possibly, though not in the form that is implied. Wishlists and the like that span shopping sites. Automated reminders. Smart wishlists for various occassions. Recommendations a la Amazon, netflix. definitley.
5. Smart Appliances? yes. Stop forgetting? Nah.
Not totally off-the-wall, but by trying to be very specific, they fail.
evilninjax
dcjeepguy2001
Posted 3:55 AM 5/12/08
- The Talking Web & Personal Shopping Assistance - Guess what? These things already exist and are continuing to develop and spread. Start with the concept of the "neural network" - a computer that mimics the operation of the human brain. That and other artificial intelligence technologies are driving much of the Web now. Next, consider the existing "screen reader" technologies that are available (and legally required) for people under the Americans With Disabilities Act (ADA) and other such laws. Speech recognition is becoming increasingly common and more sophisticated (as anyone who calls a support line knows). Now, tie it all together. Most of the sophisticated search tools online are using this AI technology...and you don't even know it. Anyone who uses Amazon.com knows that they are frequently making suggestions based on your previous purchases, purchasing frequency, and spending amounts. At the next level, you can now create online "agents" and "shopping bots" to monitor the market, search for products, and update you on availability and price. It can be passive, or active. This all exists now. (Expect it to become more pervasive, as the economy worsens and retailers have to hunt you down.)
dcjeepguy2001
booo
Posted 4:28 AM 4/12/08
@bobman1235: He'll just forget about this whole thing in 30 seconds.
booo
InnovativeAeroplane
Posted 2:43 PM 7/12/08
The funniest yet ironic part in all this is that most of this stuff is already taking place
not all of it is the most practical yet but when it gets there it will be publicly used
InnovativeAeroplane