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OLPC Origin: Bittersweet Success and Future of the XO Laptop
Posted by Wilson Rothman at 4:40 AM on August 29, 2008
When I met with Nicholas Negroponte not long ago, he laughed at the coverage he'd received through the past few years, including our own portrayal of Intel chairman Craig Barrett and him as Beavis and Butthead. Far more hurtful have been the admonitions of his own former staffers who feel he has mismanaged the OLPC project. Nearly every one of the original staff had abandoned the project by 2008, often in disgust. But Negroponte remains stalwart: "My elephant skin is the thickness of steel," he told me. Perhaps his resistance to criticism has been one of the project's fatal flaws.
Although the project seemed threatened in early 2006 from all sides these were minor compared to the problems to come. The biggest concern at the time was lack of an LCD panel manufacturer, but Negroponte and CTO Mary Lou Jepsen managed to charm another eccentric Taiwanese billionaire. Wen-Long Hsu—founder of southern Taiwan's Chi-Mei conglomerate—is the owner of the world's largest collection of Stradivarius violins, and he played one for them when they visited to sign contracts.
By the fall, everything was working great in prototype form. Quanta agreed to run its first batch, and even agreed to run a suspend-resume hibernation test cycle 1000 times on each test machine. Normally, test units were give this cycle four times, so it was a particularly unusual request. Then, at 3am on the first day of mass production, Jepsen got a call. Everything was shut down; the laptops were going to sleep and not waking up.
"All hell was breaking loose." She hauled arse to the manufacturing lab with a few other guys and started pumping the caffeine.
Eventually a Quanta guy named Gary Chang and an OLPC guy named Richard Smith ("He's from Arkansas, looks like surfer dude") solved the problem. "We were calling it the second shot from the grassy knoll," says Jepsen. Apparently, as the system was shutting down, electromagnetic noise was corrupting data, screwing up the instructions that told the thing how to wake up again.
At around the same time, the maker of the wireless chips, Marvell, decided to update the firmware for the radio, and they started to crash. "We had four people in four time zones working on that problem," said networking engineer Michail Bletsas. "Mark Foster in Taipei, me in Boston, someone in India, and someone in Santa Clara. We had to program a workaround on the fly: It's in the radio, something you're not supposed to touch under normal consequences."
"A lot of those stories weren't told," says Jepsen. "We weren't hiding it, everybody knew, but we weren't broadcasting it. We figured it all out, and shipped a million of them."
Threat Level Rising
By late 2006, Intel had finalised its specs for the Classmate PC. Though it would cost US$30 to US$40 more than the XO—the "$100 laptop" in the end cost US$188—the Classmate had a faster processor, Intel brand equity and the option of Windows XP as the OS. (Bulk buyers could also opt for Linux.) It was seductive in that it wasn't the revolutionary product that the XO was, but something more familiar, and in line with what ministers of education might have been considering already. What's more, it was a reference design that regional companies could licence and customise to fit their needs. And, perhaps, countries rife with pirated software infrastructure had plenty of free programs to run from the black market.
As it began pilot program, Intel's strategy was seen as more traditional too: Laptops could go to teachers, or loaned to students. It did not enforce Negroponte's logical but strict mandate, that the laptops be given to the children, and that they should only be deployed when there are enough to go around.
In the middle of 2007, Intel and OLPC entered into a partnership that was probably more of a hindrance to each other's initiatives than any sort of help. From the start, the deal was vague, more of a mutual appreciation society than a true strategic alliance. Six months later, it had dissolved in acrimony. OLPC accused Intel of pitching Classmate to would-be XO customers; Intel griped that OLPC wouldn't stop asking that the Classmate be discontinued in favour of the XO.
Meanwhile, Intel's more profit-minded operatives were hanging out in Taiwan, spinning the baby laptop idea to one of Quanta's arch competitors, a little known company called Asus.
On June 8, 2007, while both the XO and the Classmate were still deep in pilot testing, Asus introduced the Eee PC, a US$400 mini-notebook running a warm-n-fuzzy flavour of Linux. Not only did it resemble the Classmate more than a little, it was unveiled at a press conference hosted by none other than Intel. It would be ready for sale worldwide by that winter, and when it did become available, boy did it sell like hotcakes.
Sales Figures, Sales Facts
"Selling like hotcakes" is an expression that doesn't mean anything in particular. In many cases, "selling a million" doesn't really mean anything specific either. I've heard OLPC people say they've hit the million mark, but in terms of actual shipments, it's not true.
Due to issues that have nothing to do with hardware—and largely to do with Negroponte's greater mission of educating the world's poor—the XO spent most of 2007 in beta testing. In early November, OLPC launched the "Give 1 Get 1" US$400 charitable promotion for US buyers, but the first real bonafide XO deployment happened in Uruguay in on December 1. Confirmed orders might have topped a million at this point, but the number of existing XOs, both sold in the US and deployed en masse to schoolchildren in Peru and Uruguay, hovers around 500,000.
Ask Intel how many Classmate PCs are out in the wild, and you get a vague stat, somewhere in the "hundreds of thousands." Intel, too, promises large numbers to come. Portugal will be buying 500,000 of them for the coming school year, for instance.
The Eee PC, though, is already nearing 2 million sold, having hit 1.7 million in the first half of 2008. It is on target to reach a promised goal of 5 million by the end of the year. (By contrast, OLPC will most assuredly not reach 1 million by the end of 2008.)
The success of the mini notebooks has largely been due to price (even expensive ones rarely touch US$600) and their intentionally internet-friendly design (you're not going to load up Photoshop CS3, but browsing and email checking work fine). They are also boosted by the negativity surrounding Windows Vista: By running Linux or Windows XP, they present a desirable alternative to the bulkier, more expensive, resource-heavy machines required to run Microsoft's latest OS.
In the wake of the Eee's success, over 40 mini notebooks have hit the market over night. The top four best-selling notebooks on Amazon fall into this catetgory.
At this point, even if the millions of third-world students eventually get laptops, it's unlikely that the XO will be the one they receive. Still, the past two years are definitive proof that Negroponte can take credit for the birth of an entirely new kind of PC.
And Negroponte does claim credit for the Eee PC's success. In fact, he says it's why he introduced the next version of the XO laptop—a radical two-touchscreen device aimed at a US$75 pricetag—so early.
Encore?
I asked him why, with the first XO so clearly in its early stages of shipment, would he show off the XO-2. Sure, he doesn't have customers at Best Buy who may hold off because they know what's coming, but it seemed to take away from the momentum of the original device, not to mention confirming some of its criticisms (underpowered, cramped keyboard, etc.).
"When we announce something now that will be in play two years from now, it's partly to give the manufacturers something to start copying now," he says, elaborating, "If you go back two years and you look at the press, [the XO] was dismissed, it was not possible. Then came the Classmate, then Asus. If I underestimated anything, it was how fast people would [copy] it, even if they didn't get down to the same price or didn't have the same features. It was a movement—a hardware trend—that happened because of OLPC."
He also hopes that the announcement of the XO-2 concept, one that only exists in pictures, will stimulate small developers who work on components. Jepsen's new company Pixel Qi will focus on the next-generation of LCD touchscreen, one that can be made as cheaply as current screens today, but have capacitive touch built right into the active matrix, making it thinner than an iPhone screen. Others who saw the XO-2 renderings have already begun pitching solutions to the group.
Not a Manager
If there's one criticism made against Negroponte that's indisputable, is that he changes his tune.
In the beginning, Negroponte repeatedly affirmed that the XO was to run "Linux or some other open source operating system." After a long struggle that could easily be the subject of another series, the XO has recently been made capable of booting both its own Linux OS with Sugar interface, as well as Windows XP. (Critics say that Negroponte never allowed OLPC's Linux OS to mature so that it could stand up to pressure from the Windows advocates.)
Likewise, he was adamant at the beginning that his laptop be the only one shipped to these third-world educational programs where there isn't so much a "market" as there is a case for charity. He says now that if there is a true market—schools and families with the means and desire to buy their own laptops—others can serve it.
Inside OLPC, the leader's mercurial nature and changing priorities proved too much for the talent he had assembled. On the software side, Walter Bender and Ivan Krstic left after open disagreements with Negroponte—mostly pertaining to the adoption of Windows, but also to the overall goals of the program. Jepsen left in January 2008 in what she says was an amicable split, though other hardware experts including laptop maestro Mark Foster had abandoned ship earlier, possibly because they couldn't get along with Jepsen. Most people seem rankled by the credit that Yves Behar took as the "OLPC designer," most notably in a Wired article that would seem laughable to anyone who read Part 1 and Part 2 of this series.
When talking to staff members, there is a sense that no one really got along, and that the religion that Negroponte had instilled in his lieutenants, enough to get them to hang together for two years, has dissipated. The rocky Intel alliance and the move toward Windows were just the final disillusionments. Negroponte spoke the painfully obvious to BusinessWeek last March: "I am not a CEO. Management, administration and details are my weaknesses."
Pulling an Obi-Wan
Still, Negroponte and whoever has stuck by him charge onward. He said, to us and to others, "OLPC is not a laptop company." He himself said that to be taken seriously, you have to build hundreds of thousands of laptops every month; Quanta currently outputs a reliable stream of around 50,000 per month. Now that the mini-notebook movement is in full swing commercially, perhaps the focus should veer from hardware development. Why then stay in the hardware game? Perhaps it's telling that, on the OLPC website's own "Progress" page, nothing is mentioned after December 2007.
Bletsas—who remains hard at work on OLPC today—says that if OLPC does not stay in business, the laptop makers who followed the XO design cues will start doing what they do best: bumping the specs, upping the prices and keeping product too expensive for the foundation to use it in its educational mission. "Unless we keep designing, showing the world it's doable, I don't think they will follow in that path," he says. "If we stop at this stage, they are not going to come down enough for us to use their machines. We have to push them at least one step further."
Want more on OLPC's secret origins? Jump back to the earlier sections:
Part 1 - Genius, Hubris and the Birth of the Netbook
Part 2 - US and Taiwan's Hardware Lovechild
Comments (AU Comments · US Comments)
There are currently no AU comments for this post.
bosskev
Posted 5:09 AM 29/8/08
@siville: Actually, I appreciate a more in-depth story like this. Presented occasionally, full-length stories serve as nice counterpoints to the predominant hit-and-run entries.
Still, there ain't nuthin' like a good USB humping dog story.
bosskev
Git Em SteveDave displays attention-grabbing vanity
Posted 5:04 AM 29/8/08
I feel so sad my OLPC has been sitting neglected lately b/c I just haven't had the time to devote to it that I had when I signed up for G1G1.
Git Em SteveDave displays attention-grabbing vanity
siville
Posted 4:56 AM 29/8/08
What a novel! There isn't enough workday to read the entire story. I'll have to finish it tomorrow. (not very likely)
siville
poorGeek
Posted 4:53 AM 29/8/08
Great series, thanks Wilson
poorGeek
beekerstudios
Posted 5:34 AM 29/8/08
I like how everyone is ACTUALLY reading this and not just flaming it right off the bat. I am actually just finishing up reading the other 2 as well right now.
It's still amazing to me, what a negative cloud there is around Neg, and the XO. I understand people need to make money, but TONS of company's do stuff at a LOSS, and guess what they get to right that OFF on their taxes. WOOHOOO!!!
I watched NEGS TED discussion, and that guy is unbelievably intelligent, eloquent, well spoken, and has a very solid head on his shoulders.
I had contemplated getting an XO for my niece. I think it's a great concept and it's a shame the sucker is aiming to run windows now, instead of a simple fun OS. Hope sugar doesn't die completely.
There is nothing wrong with taking what you are good at, and helping others. Even when everyone around you thinks your crazy. Especially to give away stuff for free.. SCOFF (sarcasm).
These guys are so rich they don't even know what do with themselves, another reason I dig Warren Buffet.
beekerstudios
rospaya
Posted 5:33 AM 29/8/08
"I quit when Nicholas told me - and not just me - that learning was never part of the mission." - Ivan Krstić
rospaya
markarian
Posted 5:58 AM 29/8/08
I think one of the weaknesses is of XO with Sugar is that it does not teach children how to use a conventional computer interface. One of the main worries with this project from the start was that education ministers in poor countries would want a machine that would at least prime their youngest generation for a career in a technology-heavy economy. When a student is so poor that this computer is the only one he knows well into his teens, KDE or Windows will mystify him, let alone a CLI.
Unless these countries develop their own curricula for the machines, it becomes nothing more than an internet appliance with a goofy interface.
markarian
urbanturban666
Posted 5:53 AM 29/8/08
i was dying to get an xo.... until asus unveiled there plans for the eeepcs...
urbanturban666
beekerstudios
Posted 5:49 AM 29/8/08
@beekerstudios: write off even, you're even, I wish I had an edit button.
beekerstudios
Nickolai_the_Russian_guy
Posted 6:07 AM 29/8/08
@markarian: That's sort of a moot point. I mean, I understand it perfectly and it makes sense, but there's no reason the kids wouldn't be able to learn windows or KDE or whatever they wanted later in life. Actually using a computer with ANY kind of interface builds the skills to know how to use a computer, and after that it's just a matter of figuring out how to do the same things with a different layout. And with the customizability options these days, it should be relatively easy to get any computer to look like you want.
As a personal example, I started learning about Linux last year (when I was 18, I'll be 19 in oct.) and while GNOME and even KDE mystified me at first, I managed to learn and to customize to my needs. If I had never used a computer before, what would I really have been able to learn?
Nickolai_the_Russian_guy
Nickolai_the_Russian_guy
Posted 6:04 AM 29/8/08
Oh, and great series, I loved it.
Nickolai_the_Russian_guy
Nickolai_the_Russian_guy
Posted 6:03 AM 29/8/08
I've heard the mini-notebook/netbook/whatever you want to call it movement attributed to Negroponte and the XO before, but is it really true? Sometimes concepts are just sort of "in the air" and people will come along with something no matter who got there first. Take the wright brother for example, there were many people all over the world advancing the cause of flight, some even with relative success.
Nickolai_the_Russian_guy
markarian
Posted 6:44 AM 29/8/08
@beekerstudios: I agree that we shouldn't simply shove Windows down their throats because it's what most of the world uses.
But Windows shares a lot of commonality, interface-wise, with other environments, like Gnome, KDE, XFCE, etc. The little X button closes a window. The little button in the corner of the screen brings up cascading menus. Sure, Windows pioneered these points (after having "borrowed" them from Apple and NeXT), but Sugar is so far off the beaten track, that it might make these poor kids associate it with using a computer.
As you grow older, it generally becomes harder to learn something. And, instead of like my generation (I'm almost 26), where computers started off complicated, and got easier to use, I fear the reverse might happen with the XO, where these kids will suddenly see a real computer and be intimidated by its complexity. They will, however, be savvy with the Web at the very least.
markarian
beekerstudios
Posted 6:32 AM 29/8/08
@Nickolai_the_Russian_guy: Missed your comment before I made mine, but case in point as you've explained on a more low level explanation.
beekerstudios
beekerstudios
Posted 6:31 AM 29/8/08
@markarian: Markarian, something I've learned when using a variety of OS'es, applications, and doing things physically that you can do in the digital world (draw, paint, write music, write, etc.), is that it's often not the actual tool you are using that matters, but the concepts on how the tool functions that help you get a grasp on how things function in general on a computer. If that makes sense. Basically I do about a ton of different things on the computer (creatively and otherwise), and generally from OS to OS, and Application to Application, it's not the technical process of doing something that actually helps me understand HOW to do it, it's understanding the concepts behind it. 3d is a great example of this, Maya, 3ds Max, Cinema 4d, Lightwave, I can use them all to some capacity, yet they all keep their basic concepts of how 3d works so I can understand what I want to do, and the process of using the individual apps is a matter of figuring out where the keys go into the ingition, and not how to drive. I will shutup now, but I agree Sugar was a major failing point, I just don't think we need to teach kids how to use Windows XP, and Microsoft Word, because it's "prevalent" or is what people use "in the real world".
beekerstudios
beekerstudios
Posted 7:41 AM 29/8/08
@markarian: So lets say said computer, had an application to make music, type up a letter, learn the basics of programming, make art, communicate, and learn (you know like via the web). Dare I say that these skills might be far more useful then figuring out how to close a window, or cascade the windows. OS X doesn't have this cascading windows feature, and I don't miss it because I have Expose. Now forgive me for mentioning the iPhone, but to stay on your "closing apps" paradigm. There is no X on the iphone, you push the home button, done deal. The fact that you learn to "close an app" is enough to teach them what that means. Not he actual act of pushing a figurative "close button". I myself am 26 as well, and I don't have the same fear that you do. Some might argue that the iPhone as a "phone" is more complicated than your normal everyday cellphone or phone for that matter, and that it itself is more complicated. But that's like having a fear that the average word processor is going to morph back into a typewriter.
beekerstudios
Charbax2
Posted 7:54 AM 29/8/08
5. Are you sure that Portugal is paying for 500,000 Intel laptops for THIS school year? I believe the announcement said something like "to be shipped during the next few years". This is exactly like Intel's big announcement about providing 1 million Classmate laptops to Pakistan. Yeah right, are they talking about 2015 or are they actually really shipping any large quantities of cheap laptops? Also, at which price is Portugal paying for those laptops? Intel and Portugal ARE NOT saying. The price per Intel Laptop to be shipped to Portugal, I estimate, is most probably going to be between $400 and $500. Don't expect Intel to make any charity in this case. Their goal is to make the OLPC project look like it is loosing momentum.
6. How do you know that "OLPC will most assuredly not reach 1 million by the end of 2008"? Did Negroponte tell you that? They already have reached 1 million laptops sales confirmed at this point, some of those laptops are simply not shipped yet cause countries that are implementing them in different phases and working through analysing pilot projects, making sure that the deployments are as successful as possible. If you look at the reports from every of the OLPC pilot projects. They are abondantly positive, even the 1000 XO pilot in Birmingham Alabama is said by both teachers and students to be a huge success, with 14000 laptops to be given to the rest of the students in that city in the next few weeks.
Charbax2
Charbax2
Posted 7:44 AM 29/8/08
This chapter seems to have many approximations in my opinion:
1. How do you know that the Classmate PC cost $30 to $40 more than the XO? Cause Intel said so? Did you see any proof Intel shipped any large quantities of laptops at anywhere near $228 now over 2 years after Intel announced that they were $20 to $40 more expensive? Did Negroponte tell you that the Classmate PC cost $20 to $40 more expensive? - MOST PROBABLY, that the Classmate PC cost over $400 when it was introduced, and still costs significantly more then the XO, probably that Intel's latest Tablet Classmate actually cost over $400 still today.
2. Asus DID NOT introduce the Eee PC at $400. Asus and Intel made a big circus saying it would cost $199. More then a years after their announcement, the Eee is still MOSTLY sold at $399 or more. Do you see how that tells us how the Classmate PC most probably also cost closer to $400 then it would cost $228?
3. Who told you that "Nearly every one of the original staff had abandoned the project by 2008"? Did Negroponte tell you that? Who told you that? A couple early people left, Walter Bender (still working on XO related Sugar OS, just independently from OLPC) and Ivan Kristic. Jepsen did not leave OLPC, she just decided to turn her screen into a commercial project to licence it to commercial laptops as well. Jepsen IS making the screen for the next OLPC XO-2 laptop. Who else are you saying from the original OLPC staff would have left the organisation at this point?
4. The Eee PC might be nearing 2 million sold, but Asus is using the Eee brand on laptops selling at up to $800 and beyond. You cannot say that a $800 Eee PC is anywhere similar to an OLPC XO laptop. Asus would have sold those anyways. And, OLPC was not intended to be sold in supermarkets and commercial retailers as the Eee has been since it was released. And still consider, that probably more then 95% of shipped Eee laptops cost a minimum of $399, more than double the price of the OLPC XO laptop.
Charbax2
markarian
Posted 8:13 AM 29/8/08
@beekerstudios: I have an iPhone and I'm a huge fan of it. I also used to work for Apple, doing OS X support. I talked about cascading Menus from a central button in the corner of the screen (like a Start menu). Let it be said from the beginning that Apple did it first. I did not mean to mention window cascading, which is an albeit ancient vestige of Windows 2.0.
When you hit the home button on the iPhone, the App doesn't always close, depending on what it is. As a matter of fact, sometimes it becomes necessary to Force Quit an application by holding down the button for several seconds, which many people do not know.
I guess the point I'm trying to make is that Sugar is a HUGE gamble, which I don't think a lot of foreign governments want to take. Spending hundreds of millions of dollars on an unproven software platform is crazy. Yes, it's Linux, but so is the embedded system in a vending machine. These governments don't want to feel like they have to make heavy modifications to these things, just to make them usable.
I think you misunderstand me. My point is that, rather than simply giving these kids a normal computer with a conventional interface (like XFCE or FVWM), which they would certainly be able to understand, so long as it was localized into their language, the XO seeks a total paradigm shift to an unproven platform. Instead of simply being a cheap computer to give poor kids access to the web and technology, they're trying to unnecessarily re-invent the wheel.
markarian
jackfrost132
Posted 9:42 AM 29/8/08
Excellent read, I was looking forward to the final chapter.
jackfrost132
jrghoull
Posted 9:48 AM 29/8/08
it's times like this that i love regulated sites like gizmodo. good, decent, intelligent posts. not at all like the crap you find in places like digg
anyway,
as someone stated above, the project has been basically broken up into parts. obviously jenson, as you guys say, started her own company. the guys behind sugar left but started sugar labs. certain parts of the project are still very much alive, just as their own separate group. there are actually a number of these (i have no idea how many or what they all do) but they are definately around. some try and get the word out about the olpc and its mission, some work to improve its OS, some try to do G1G1, there are a whole bunch of them. If you brought them all together, you'd probably have something resembling a small but efficient company.
to all the people talking about sugar: the guys who help make sugar broke away from the original group and started sugar labs. It's an independent ngo which keeps to the original goals of the olpc. They are however at the same time , for better or worse, standardizing some of the aspects of the sugar (for instance, there is a control panel that will let you change the time as well as a few other things).
the olpc project is still incredibly new and there is alot that needs to be done. while the official project might not look like it's doing so well...alot is going on underneath the surface
gizmodo, if you guys are ever looking to do a report on all the stuff that is REALLY going on now a days with olpc, and maybe not just deal with what is being said in the news, but what is happening "underground", and is not being reported elsewhere (like the story you did above) then i would suggest going to [www.olpcnews.com] it's a great site that has everything that's going on with the project right now. it's mostly software stuff, but there is also some info on what contries have recently bought a few (thousand) units, and how the project to educate children through XOs is coming along (which is, in a word: swimmingly)
oh yeah, final note: they have sold more along the lines of 600k to 700k at this pont. which, seeing as how they have yet to pass the million mark, is something of a significant increase.
jrghoull
Dacker
Posted 6:37 AM 30/8/08
Jepsen left in January 2008 in what she says was an amicable split, though other hardware experts including laptop maestro Mark Foster had abandoned ship earlier, possibly because they couldn't get along with Jepsen.
Yep, that sounds like Mary Lou! She loves to play the politics, be in the limelight, and will step on anyone in her way and piss-off everyone around her (but is careful not to piss-off those above her.)
I worked with her a few years ago... Can you tell?
Dacker
cmonkey
Posted 2:13 PM 2/9/08
I am impressed by the quality of this series. This is one of the few decent stories I've seen about OLPC; not the usual FUDfests you get from most blogs and the mainstream media.
It may not be within the scope of what the series was going for, but it is interesting to note that the story doesn't end on the "Progress" page on the OLPC site. The real story is happening in the Wiki, in which there are 10,000 unique visitors daily from Uruguay alone. Almost all of these visits are from children using the Browse Activity on OLPC XOs. To me, that alone can summarize what the project has been up to. 500,000 children who went from having little to no access to technology or the world outside their village to interacting with the internet.
cmonkey